Markets Monitor Twitter for Trade Clues
Nov 02, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 2, 2018!
Grain Markets are hopeful that a trade resolution between the US and China is closer to reality than previously thought after President Trump signaled optimism. Any new statements to the contrary could impact markets quickly. Remember, Daylight Savings Time ends Sunday morning at 2:00 AM CST. Don't forget to turn your clocks back 1 hour.
Curious about next week's USDA Supply and Demand report? Find out what the potential wild cards may be, how USDA may address yields, and more in our free webinar, here.
Weekly export sales for the week of the 19th through the 25th reported corn sales of 399,441 metric tonnes. That was under the 500,000 – 850,000 trade estimate. Soybean sales came in at 455,807 metric tonnes, within the 400,000 – 750,000 expectation. Wheat sales were reported at 582,545 metric tonnes, better than the 200,000 – 500,000 trade expectation.
USDA is changing its focus for soybean export sales to total shipments, rather than just sales. They mentioned, " export sales are good forward indicator of shipments; however, unlike China, many markets such as the European Union, the Middle East, and North Africa do not purchase soybeans in advance."
INTL FCStone now estimates the 2018 corn yield at 181.4 bushels per acre, down from its previous estimate of 182.7. Soybean yield was also lowered from 54.0 to 53.2. Production numbers were reduced accordingly.
USDA reported 5.08 million tons of soybeans were crush in September. Analysts were expecting a bit more at 5.131.
President Trump tweeted, "Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!"
U.S. President Donald Trump has asked officials in his administration to start drafting the terms of a possible trade deal with China, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing four unnamed sources familiar with the matter. (CNBC)
Estimates for next week's USDA Supply and Demand report have been released by Allendale. We see 2018/19 corn ending stocks at 1,794 million bushels, soybeans 923, and wheat 960. Check out the full details here.
Pacific Ethanol's CEO stated that they have cut their ethanol production by 10% due to low margins. Pacific Ethanol has capacity for 605 million gallons of ethanol production per year. That is 3.7% of the nation’s 16.4 billion gallons in capacity per year.
A Russian ag safety watchdog suggested it would request the suspension of operations at five grain loading points in the Rostov region with a local court. The group has been investigating standards at the facilities after complaints from buyers about crop standards.
China's purchases of Brazilian soybeans in September jumped 28 percent from the prior year, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Thursday, as buyers stocked up ahead of an expected shortfall in the fourth quarter. This is the first time that China has provided data on the country of origin for its commodity imports since the month of March. (Reuters)
Managed money funds were thought to be buyers of 15,000 corn contract, 21,000 soybeans, 7,000 wheat, 6,000 soymeal, and 3,500 soyoil in yesterday's trade.
Nonfarm Payrolls lead the economic calendar this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Trade Balance will also be released at that time, while Factory Orders will be released at 9:00 AM.
Beef sales for delivery in 2018 soared to 25,311 metric tonnes. That was the third largest sale of the year. It was 53% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales are 17% over last year. For 2018 delivery, pork sales came to 21,765 tonnes, the best sale in five weeks (but it is normal for this week to be big). Year to date sales are 3.9% over last year.