Markets Turn to USDA Data
Mar 08, 2019
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for March 8, 2019.
Grain markets are a bit higher on quiet volume as traders wait for this morning's release of USDA's latest Supply and Demand numbers. Markets will also look to this morning's employment data for direction. Positive trade talks out of China overnight did little to spur buying.
Daylight savings time begins this Sunday at 2:00 AM. Remember to move your clocks forward one hour to be ready for Sunday nights reopen.
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Average estimates for today's USDA Supply and Demand report were released by Reuters. Analysts see soybeans ending stocks at .902 billion bushels, wheat 1.020, and corn at 1.736 billion bushels. World ending stocks are estimated at 267.47 million tonnes for wheat, 309.06 corn, and 106.33 soybeans.
South American numbers have Argentina's corn production at 45.92 million tonnes and soybeans at 55.23. Brazilian corn production is estimated at 94.66 million tonnes, and soybeans at 115.73. The report will be out this morning at 11:00 AM CST.
Weekly grain export sales today covered activity from Friday February 22nd – Thursday the 28th. Corn export sales totaled 1,250,642 metric tonnes during this week, under the 800,000 – 1,400,000 trade expectation. Soybean sales were reported at 383,442 metric tonnes. Expectations were for 600,000 – 1,150,000 tonnes. Wheat sales totaled 826,683 metric tonnes, over the 200,000 – 600,000 trade expectation.
Chinese state-owned firms bought at least 500,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans on Thursday, traders said, in the first purchases since a U.S. official said last month China had committed to buying an additional 10 million tonnes as part of trade negotiations. The purchases of at least eight bulk cargoes were for shipment primarily from Pacific Northwest grain export terminals from June to September, two traders with knowledge of the deals told Reuters.
China will import 85 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2018/19 year, according to an agriculture ministry forecast released on Friday, up from 83.65 million tonnes previously. (Reuters)
FranceAgriMer estimates 86% of French soft wheat is in good/excellent condition as of March 4, an increase from last weeks 85% and 81% last year.
Abiove expects Brazil's "soybean highway," BR-163, to reopen and for traffic to flow again after heavy rains stopped traffic from heading north to countries export ports.
Managed money funds were estimated sellers across the board again yesterday day with traders estimated they sold 9,000 corn contracts, 16,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat, 1,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil.
Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment lead the list of economic reports out this morning at 8:30 AM CST. Average Workweek, Housing Starts, and Building Permits are also out this morning.
Weekly beef export sales ran 24,710 tonnes in the latest week. That was positive at 26% over last year in the same week. Pork sales this past week ran 24,436 metric tonnes. That was good at 23% over last year in the same week. No China buys were reported in last week’s numbers.
Monthly Cold Storage reported 562.710 million pounds of pork at the end of January. That was under our 583.730 estimate, and an increase over the end of December count by 57 million pounds.
Bloomberg's survey of Cattle on Feed analysts is to see January placements into feedlots at 7.2% under last year. The range in estimates is from -4.2% to -13.0% vs. the previous year. We compute 5.2% fewer placements than last year over the September - January period (-549,000 head). For January marketings of finished cattle, they will run 1.9% over last year according to the average guess. Cattle on Feed will be out today at 2:00 PM
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 1.11 and select up 0.17. The CME feeder index is 139.76. Pork cut-out values were up 1.19.