NOPA Crush & Crop Progress On Tap
Oct 15, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 15, 2018!
Grain Markets will monitor the weather forecasts this week to see if US harvest can regain a strong pace. For now, the harvest window looks to be wide open through most of the US. This afternoon's Crop Progress report will give an idea of what remains.
NOPA Crush will be released this morning at 11:00 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see 157.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed in September. If realized, this would be the largest September crush on record.
Weekly export sales were released on Friday, a day late due to last Monday's federal holiday. Corn sales were reported at 1,006,700 tonnes, at the low end of the 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 estimate. Soybean sales came in at 439,700 tonnes, well below the 800,000 to 1,300,000 estimate. Wheat sales were reported at 339,000 within the 300,000 to 600,000 estimate.
Managed money funds were buyers for the week ending October 9th of 23,732 corn contracts to bring their net position to -34,032. They bought 3,002 soybean contracts to bring their net position to -41,401. In wheat they were sellers of 4,786 contracts bringing their net position to -16,885.
Funds on Friday were thought to be buyers of 16,500 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans, 5,500 wheat, and 3,000 soyoil. They were neutral in soymeal.
British Prime Minister Theresa May struggled on Friday to find consensus on a Brexit plan that would be acceptable to her ministers, her divided Conservative Party and the Northern Irish lawmakers who prop up her minority government. (Reuters)
The economic calendar is busy this week, begging today with Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing at 7:30 AM CDT. Later this week, we'll see Industrial Production, Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes, and Initial Jobless Claims among many others.
Beef export sales of 13,300 MT were reported for 2018 in the weekly report. This is down 18% from last week and 10% from the prior four-week average. For 2019, net sales of 1,900 MT were reported. Exports, however, were a marketing year high at 21,300 MT.
Pork exports sales were up 14 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 24,800 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Funds were sellers in livestock according to the latest commitments of traders report. It showed they sold 3,371 live cattle contracts to reduce their long position to 80,608. They sold 122 hog contracts to bring their net position to 32,042.
France was expected to start putting up fencing along its border with Belgium over this weekend in an attempt to prevent the spread of African Swine Fever from wild boars.
Dressed Beef Values were mixed with choice up 0.20 and select down .21. The CME Feeder Index is at 157.48. Pork cutout value was up 1.43.