Soybean Crush and Tax Cuts the Focus
Dec 01, 2017
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for December 1, 2017.
Grain markets await new demand data as traders wait to see how funds will respond to the new month after yesterday's short-covering rally in corn. Outside markets look to Washington for the tax vote scheduled for today.
October soybean crush is estimated at 174.7 million bushels of soybeans according to a Reuters poll. That would be well above Septembers 145.4 mb. Soyoil stocks at the end of October are estimated at 1.650 billion pounds. The report will be out today at 2:00 PM CST.
EPA released the official biofuel requirements for 2018 and announced 19.29 billion gallons for the total requirement of all biofuels in 2018, up slightly from 19.28 in 2017. Advanced biofuels would total 4.29 billion gallons in 2018, up slightly from 4.28 in 2017. As part of the advanced group they will keep the biodiesel requirement unchanged at 2.1 billion.
Weekly export sales for the week of November 16 – 23 had corn sales totaling 599,157 metric tonnes (all 2017/18). That was well under the 700,000 – 1,200,000 trade expectation. This week’s sale was the lowest for this particular week in five years.
Soybean export sales totaled 942,858 metric tonnes (all 2017/18). This was within the 800,000 – 1,300,000 trade expectation. USDA’s goal for export sales this year is a new record of 2.250 billion bushels. That would be 26% over the five year average and 4% over last year’s record. Year to date sales at 1.264 billion are 15% under the five year average and 2% under last year by this point.
Wheat sales were reported at 187,420 metric tonnes (184,420 2017/18). below the 250,000 – 450,000 trade expectation. This was the lowest sale for this particular week in 15 years. This makes it two weeks in a row of weak sales. USDA’s goal is 1.000 billion bushels in exports, 2% over the five year average. Year to date sales are 631 million bushels, 4% under the five year average.
European Union soybean imports for the 2017/18 marketing year had reached 4.8 million tonnes by Tuesday, Nov 28, down 11% from 5.45 million tonnes imported by the same time last year according to EU data.
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 corn contracts, 1,000 wheat, and 3,500 soymeal in yesterday's trade. They were estimated sellers of 6,000 soybeans, and 3,000 soyoil.
Economic reports reports today include ISM Index, and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM CST. Auto and Truck Sales are due at 1:00 PM. The big story that outside markets will be following, however, is the tax-cut vote in the US Senate which is expected at 10:00 AM CST this morning.
Pork export sales of 15,362 tonnes was sold for export last week. Another 4,004 tonnes was sold for 2018. This week’s sale was 73% over last year in the same week, 83% over the 3 year average. Year to date sales are 5% over last year.
Beef export sales through the 23rd totaled 13,825 metric tonnes for the current marketing year. 4,925 tonnes were noted for 2018. This week’s sale was 33% under last year.
Cash cattle traded at 120 in Kansas and Nebraska yesterday, only to trade in Kansas again at 121.
First notice day in December cattle contracts is this Monday, December 4th.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.91 and select down 1.63. The CME Feeder Index is 156.92. Pork cutout value is down .05.
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