Summer Weather Stories Ignite Buying Interest
May 17, 2017
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 17, 2017.
Grain markets are higher on weather forecasts for summer growing season and bargain hunting. The stock indices are gaining attention as key technical support areas are being tested.
Allendale’ Ag Leader Monthly Webinar is set for May 23rd at 8:00 PM CDT.
The topic this month is South America's Impact on U.S. Prices. We will be speaking with Pedro Dejneka, who just returned from a trip to Brazil. He will share his insight on how South American agriculture, exports, currencies, and more could impact grain prices here in the U.S.
Can't make it live? Registration gets you access to the webinar recording as well.
Weather conditions this week should be conducive to another week of planting success in the Midwest. Corn and soybean planting moved aggressively last week in the northwest Midwest. This week drier weather will aid the eastern Midwest and the delta seeding process, at least through tomorrow.
Commodity Weather Group weekly Ag Scorecard released yesterday affirms view that highest odds (44%) are for cool/wet US Midwest summer. Hot/dry odds were only 29%.
Reuters Weather Team releases an article Tuesday afternoon titled, Hot and Dry Conditions are Probable Over Portions of the U.S. Corn Belt This Summer.
Fact of the Day: December corn futures trading range from Jan 1 to expiration over the past 10 years have averaged $2.27 ¼. The largest range was $5.09 ¼ and the smallest range in the past 10 years is $.98 ¼ (2015). This year’s trading range since January 1 is $.25 ¾.
Brazil’s oilseed industry group, Abiove raised their soybean production to 112.5 million tonnes from 111.0 million tonnes in April. They also have raised Brazil’s soybean exports to 61.7 million tonnes.
Crop rating for Illinois corn was 42% Good/Excellent was the third lowest in 30 years.
Market consensus for today's weekly EIA report is for a -2.75 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a -1.0 million barrel drop in gasoline inventories, a -1.25 million barrel drop in distillate inventories.
US Dollar sets new post-election low while the Euro currency sets a new 6 month high mainly due to the positive news in Europe.
Fed Cattle Exchange has 2,379 head offered at auction today. The feedlot trade in recent weeks has not developed until the results of this auction is known.
Spreaders in the livestock complex were unwinding long cattle and short hog positions on Tuesday. Open interest in the June cattle contract is being watched closely due to the large position in the June contract of cattle and the CME to have trader’s net position under 500 contracts by first notice day, June 5th.
June live cattle futures broke recent lows and traded below the 20-day moving average on Tuesday. Short term trend is down in live cattle however the futures discount to cash is providing bargain hunters on any setbacks.
Lean hog futures put in an outside day up in most contracts on Tuesday. Chart resistance now crosses at the 80.00 level with support at 76.50 area.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .48 and select down 1.11. The CME Feeder Index is 143.48. Pork cutout value is up 1.11.
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