Tension Builds As Brits Vote
Jun 23, 2016
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for June 23, 2016.
Grain markets are continuing their slide as rain is in the short term forecast. Latest pre-vote poll is favoring Britain to stay in the EU.
Tension builds as British voters go to the polls to decide the countries association with the European Union. Investors around the world are concerned about the ramifications on stock markets and currencies if the voting results in leaving the EU. Grain markets could be affected due to outside money flow. FCM’s are taking precautions by raising margin requirements on some commodity contracts.
British pollster, YouGov will be releasing its poll on how people voted shortly after the polling stations close. This pollster gained recognition after they released the very close prediction in 2014 on the Scottish Referendum.
Weather forecasts for the critical corn pollination period during July is still very important, however, traders focus is on Britain today. Watch for changes to the 10 to 15 day forecast maps as any shift to hot and dry could reignite the bull’s fireworks going into July 4 holiday.
The USDA will release Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage numbers at 11:00 AM next Thursday.
December corn futures contract closes below the 50 day moving average on Wednesday for the first time since May 11, 2016. The 100 day moving average crosses today at 395 ¾.
Are you ready for the June 30th USDA Stocks and Acreage reports? Join us June 28th in our next Ag Leaders Webinar for estimates and expectations of these important reports. Register Here.
Weekly Export sales will be released at 7:30 am. Trade estimates for 2015/16: corn 750,000 to 1,000,000, soybeans 400,000 to 700,000, soymeal 50,000 to 120,000 and soyoil 20,000 to 40,000 mt.
For 2016/17: wheat 400,000 to 600,000, corn 200,000 to 400,000, soybeans 600,000 to 800,000, soymeal 100,000 to 250,000 and soyoil 0 to 10,000 mt.
Statistics Canada will report on crop plantings on June 29. Canadian farmers are expected to have planted slightly less wheat for harvest this year and about the same area of canola, according to a Reuters survey.
Ethanol production fell in the latest week from 1.013 million barrels per day to 962,000. The year to date pace is 2.1% over last year and over the USDA’s corn for ethanol goal of 1.0%.
Crude oil stocks decline less than trade was expecting while gasoline stocks rose slightly vs ideas for a decline.
UkrAgroConsult said due to favorable weather this spring they are raising Ukraine’s wheat production outlook to 23.3 mmt from 22.0 mmt.
DuPont and Bayer AG have teamed up with a venture capital firm to launch a $15 million accelerator fund that will back early-stage agricultural-tech companies.
USDA will release the June cattle on Feed report at 2:00 pm on Friday. Trade is estimating: On Feed 102%, Placed 109.2% and Marketed 105%.
Cash cattle trade this week has been established at 116 to 117. With a week left to trade, the June cattle futures contract has aligned with cash price.
Quarterly Hog and Pigs report will be released on Friday with trade average estimates as follows: All Hogs 100.8%, Kept for Breeding 100.4% and Kept for Market 100.8%.
Lean hog futures broke the technical support levels on Wednesday in the nearby contracts. Visible support in August Hog contract is the gap just below 84.00. Bear spreading has also been a feature in the hog complex in recent session.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.07 and up .14. The CME Feeder Index is 141.61. Pork cutout values are up .77.
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