Trade Concerns Loom as US & Canada Try to Salvage NAFTA Deal
Sep 06, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 6, 2018.
Grain Market Traders continue to wait to see if the US and Canada can strike a NAFTA deal by Friday. Data released yesterday showed the U.S. trade deficit hit a five-month high of $50 billion. With a new record US crop all but certain, good US trade deals may be more important than ever.
Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey results were released yesterday. Allendale’s Chief Research Analyst, Rich Nelson shared our estimated corn yield at 177.68 (178.38 on Aug. USDA report) and corn production numbers at 14.529 (14.586 on Aug. USDA report). The survey showed soybean yields at 52.17 (51.61 on Aug. USDA report) and soybean production at 4.636 (4.586 on Aug. USDA report). A recorded version of the presentation is available for those who could not attend live.
Abiove revised up Brazil's 2018 soybean export forecast to a record 76.1 million tonnes (73.5 million tonnes in previous prediction). Abiove cut their 2018 outlook for Brazil soybean stocks to 1.465 million tonnes (previously 3.865 million tonnes) due to the strong export numbers.
Brazil's transportation regulator on Wednesday raised minimum truck freight rates by 5 percent on average, as the government walks a tight line between the demands of the agriculture and trucking industries following a truckers' strike in May. (Reuters)
Weekly export sales numbers, normally out on Thursday mornings, will be delayed until tomorrow at 7:30 AM due to Monday's Labor Day holiday.
Trader's Estimate funds were net sellers of 6,500 corn contracts, 2,500 soybeans, 2,000 contracts of soymeal and 3,500 wheat contracts in Wednesday's trading session.
World Weather, Inc says that as of now there is, "little evidence that El Nino will evolve in the month of September. That does not mean El Nino is not coming, but the lack of development this month will buy Southeast Asia, Australia and possibly southern India a little more time for improved rainfall before the drier bias of El Nino begins to influence the regions." Stay tuned.
U.S. Tech Stocks tumbled across the board yesterday as executives from Facebook Inc.and Twitter Inc. defended their companies before Congress in their efforts to prevent election meddling during the last election. 59 of the 73 companies in the S&P 500 technology sector posted losses.
Lean Hog Futures finished higher for the third day in a row. There was a tenth case of African Swine Fever (ASF) reported yesterday in the Northeast province of Heilongjiang. In South Korea, a shipment of dumplings from China tested positive for ASF as well.
Cattle numbers in Australia's major producing states are expected decline to 26 million head next year due to drought in the regions. Total slaughter is expected to fall about 450,000 head according to the USDA Attache.
Cattle Futures in the two nearby live cattle contracts pulled back a little yesterday, closing at 109.25 in October. With the European Commission proposal yesterday to have a portion of the current beef import quota be diverted to US suppliers. The total allotment of beef for import is roughly 45,000 metric tonnes of non-hormone treated beef. Analyst expect less than 5% of US cattle to qualify under these terms.
Dressed Beef values were lower on Wednesday with choice down 0.42 and select down 1.30. The CME Feeder Index closed at 151.65. Pork cutout values finished Wednesday lower down 0.65.