Trade Deals and Holiday Trade
Nov 21, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 21, 2018!
Grain Markets begin their "holiday trade" mentality as volume begins to slow ahead of Thanksgiving. The decreased volume leaves the potential for headline volatility as fewer trader are around to respond. Markets will trade their normal schedule through the day session today, but will not reopen until Friday morning at 8:30 AM CST, and then will have an early 12:05 close. December option expiration will take place Friday as well. All of us at Allendale wish you a happy Thanksgiving, and hope you get to spend it with family and friends!
Weak margins are forcing Green Plains to shut-down production at its ethanol plant in Wood River, Nebraska. Across the nation, however, ethanol production remains healthy, with the most recent numbers 1.2% over last year. This comes as the EPA is set to revise its targets for the RFS.
Argentina is expected to see a period of net drying according to World Weather, Inc. "Portions of west-central Argentina lost a significant amount of topsoil moisture and are in need of some rain to restore optimal conditions for aggressive crop development. Some timely rain will fall in the drier biased areas, but a large part of the nation will trend drier biased through early next week."
CME Group is contemplating introduction of futures contracts on Brazilian soybeans as the trade dispute between the US and China agitates oilseed prices, the Financial Times reports.
Managed money funds were sellers of 6,000 corn contracts in yesterday's trade. They were buyers of 4,500 soybeans, 2,000 wheat, and 2,000 soymeal. They were neutral in soyoil.
Mexico expects Washington to begin lifting steel and aluminum tariffs against it later this month, when Canada, Mexico and the United States are slated to sign a revamped trade deal, the Mexican ambassador to the United States told McClatchy on Monday.
The Trump administration on Tuesday said that China has failed to alter its "unfair" practices at the heart of the U.S.-China trade conflict, adding to tensions ahead of a high-stakes meeting later this month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Reuters)
Key lawmakers with power over USDA and FDA spending want more information on the two agencies' plan to divide up jurisdiction over cell-cultured meat before they'll consider nixing a provision in an upcoming funding bill that would give USDA lead responsibility over the budding sector. (Politico)
USDA Cattle on Feed Report will be released today at 11:00 AM CST. Trade’s average estimate On Feed (Nov 1) at 104.4, October placements at 99.1 and October marketings at 104.2.
Cold Storage will also be released today at 11:00 AM. The average guess for end of October pork stocks is 573.4 million lbs. For beef stocks, the estimate is at 512.7 million lbs.
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 0.48 and select up 1.00. The CME Feeder Index is at 147.09. Pork cutout value was up .63.