US Yields Expected Higher as Trade Negotiations Continue
Aug 24, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 24, 2018.
Grain markets continue to search for bullish news as recent technical action has propelled the selling. Crop tour findings have done nothing to spark fear in the bears. Could grain option expiration provide a source for a pause in the selling?
Allendale’s Annual Yield Survey is going on now through August 31. Participate in the survey by clicking here. You know your field better than anyone! We will be releasing the survey results during a live webinar (Register Here) on September 5. You can also share the results of your farm by calling us at 800-262-7538.
Weekly export sales reported combined corn export sales totaling 1,228,007 metric tonnes, within the 800,000 – 1,500,000 trade estimate. Old crop/new crop soybean sales combined for 1,301,330 million tonnes, over the trade estimate of 500,000 – 950,000 tonnes. Wheat sales totaled 239,842 metric tonnes, all 2018/19 current crop. The trade estimate was 450,000 – 850,000.
Export shipments are important to watch as the end of the old crop marketing year approaches for corn and soybeans (August 31). So far the US has shipped 2.154 billion for corn. Normally, we ship out an extra 90 million bushels over the next 15 days. Additionally, a few extra bushels are shipped over the weekly FAS numbers, so we estimate old crop exports at 2.306 million. Soybean shipments total 2.003 billion by August 16. Our estimate for remains shipments brings our export guess to 2.096 billion.
Rich Nelson did a study comparing the ProFarmer tour results to USDA's numbers and suggests that ProFarmer is finding results above USDA's numbers. He cautions, however, that the two data sets are not an apples to apples comparison. Subscribers can read the full report here. ProFarmer's results will be out this afternoon at 1:30 CDT.
The International Grains Council has raised its estimate for 2018/19 world corn production to 1.064 billion tonnes, up 12 million from their previous estimate. They cite an improved US crop for the change. Additionally, they lowered their world wheat production estimate.
China's grain imports plunged in July after Beijing imposed hefty tariffs on shipments from the United States as part of its trade conflict and as rising international prices curbed buying, customs data showed on Thursday. Thursday's data also showed China took in 330,000 tonnes of corn in July, down 63.7 percent from last year. China's wheat imports last month also slid 43.03 percent from a year earlier to 140,000 tonnes. (Reuters)
Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 18,000 corn contracts, 7,000 soybeans, 4,000 wheat, and 4,000 soymeal in yesterday's trade. They were neutral in soyoil.
Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that details of the Trump Administrations $12 billion dollar farm aid program will be released on Monday.
China's Ministry of Agriculture reported the fourth case this month of African swine fever. 430 hogs were infected by the most recent outbreak. China breeds more the 600 million hogs annually, and officials assert that they have the situation under control.
Cattle on Feed will be released this afternoon at 2:00 PM CDT. Trade estimates are: On Feed 104.5%, Placed during July 106.3% and Marketed during July 104.7%, with one extra marketing day in July.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .33 and select up .02. The CME Feeder Index is 150.64. Pork cutout value is down 1.05.