Weather and Macros Influence Volatility In the Week Ahead

Published on: 10:56AM Jul 13, 2015

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for July 13, 2015 at 5:15 am.

Grain markets are mostly lower as weather, large fund positions and macro market concerns give reasons for some profit taking.

With the USDA report behind us the bulls and the bears will be duking it out over the next few weeks. The short term weather forecast is for wet conditions in areas that don’t need it. However the longer term weather models are starting to come into line for a drier period.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Our Summer Outlook Conference is next week! Register Now to hear our latest price projections and trade strategies, plus the fundamental and technical factors we look at to arrive at are projections.

From a personal point of view during a trip from McHenry Illinois to Cincinnati, Ohio over the weekend, there are a lot of fields in Northern Indiana where drier weather is not going to save the crop, the damage is done. The question is what kind of yield can be salvaged on the balance of the fields that are not drowned out. Soybeans have a better chance of recovery in some areas. We also saw many fields along the way that could produce record yields this year. Corn pollination will be watched closely over the next few weeks.

Cash bids at terminals around the country were mostly steady on Friday as farmer selling was quiet.

The 2015 record crop in South America has prevented US soybean sales. Currently new crop sales are 6.3 million tonnes compared to last year’s 11.7 million tonnes.

The CFTC Commitment of traders report showed Managed Money Funds adding to long position last week. They were net buyers of 102,674 contracts of corn, 5,660 contracts of soybeans and 20,264 contracts of wheat.

Greece and the EU leaders have come to an agreement nine hours after deadline.

National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said "The impact on the global economy of Greece leaving or not leaving is so tiny"… "The more important one is China," Mr. Oster said. "I think the issue is not so much the equity market, but how weak is the fundamental Chinese economy?" China will be releasing gross domestic product data on Wednesday.

Weekly Broiler price of 12 city composite was 98.02, down $6.35 from last week and $13.93 down from last year.

On Friday’s supply and demand report the USDA added 77 million to this year’s production of chicken, beef, pork and turkey but more than offset that with a net export estimate. The amount of all-meat offered to consumers will run 4.2% over last year.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 2.74 and select down 2.59. The CME Feeder Index is 221.44. Pork cutout values are down .48.

Call us with questions at 800-262-7538 or [email protected]