Weather Trade & USDA Remain the Focus
Jun 22, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 22, 2018.
Grain markets continue their focus on weather and trade issues as the Chinese commerce ministry warns of further economic harm to US workers and farmers if trade tensions continue. Estimates for next week's big USDA reports will begin to swirl the market later today or early Monday which will also get the attention of traders.
Weekly export sales for June 8th to the 14th had corn sales of 1,176,591 tonnes (165,917 for 2017/18 and 339,692 for 2018/19). The trade estimate was 700,000 – 1,000,000 tonnes. Year to date sales now come to 2.220 billion. Soybean sales of 529,350 metric tonnes were also reported (301,745 for 2017/18 and 227,605 for 2018/19), within the 400,000 – 100,000,000 trade expectation. 100% of USDA’s goal has now been sold, just below the usual 101% for this time of year.
Wheat sales were reported at 461,333 tonnes, within the 250,000 – 500,000 trade expectation. USDA’s goal for the new year that started on June 1 is 950 million bushels. 183 have now been sold.
Updated NOAA maps out yesterday showed mostly good growing conditions through the corn belt through September. Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. notes, however, "a ridge of high pressure is expected to build across portions of the Midwest late next week into the first week of July. Little rain and warmer temperatures will occur." Drew will headline our Summer Conference Series next month. Find out more and get registered.
Argentina's crop is estimated at 37.2 million tonnes of soybeans and 42.4 million tonnes of corn for the 2017/18 season according to the Ag Ministry. Both numbers are slightly higher than their previous estimates.
Russian Wheat production is estimated to fall to 67.4 million tonnes this yearn poor weather for their winter and spring crops according to Agritel. If realized, the crop would be 21.5% smaller than last year's which was a record. The estimate is in line with other analysts.
The House narrowly passed its version of the farm bill yesterday on its second try as Republican leadership managed to round up just enough support from hard-line conservatives to carry the bill across the finish line. The sweeping farm and nutrition policy legislation passed by a vote of 213-211. The measure previously failed last month after Freedom Caucus members withheld support as leverage to force a vote on a conservative immigration measure. (Politico)
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 8,500 corn contracts and 5,000 wheat during yesterday's session. They were sellers of 10,500 soybeans, 3,500 soymeal, and 5,000 soyoil.
June Cattle on Feed estimates are: On Feed June 1, 103.4%, Placed during May 95.6% and Marketings during May 105.1%. USDA will release the report on Friday, June 22 at 2:00pm CDT. Preview for June 2018 Cattle on Feed by Rich Nelson, CLICK HERE.
Weekly beef export sales were reported at 16,716 tonnes. This was even with last year. Year to date sales are 21% over last year.
Pork export sales only came to 9,562 tonnes this week. This was the third lowest sale of the year. It was also 61% under last year.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down .88 and select up .56. The CME Feeder Index is 142.21. Pork cutout value is up .16.