Weekend Rains Create Quality Concerns

Published on: 10:52AM May 18, 2015

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 18, 2015 at 5:15 am.

Grain markets are higher lead by wheat where weekend rain across the southern plains damaged crop. Row crops are being supported by short covering. The US Dollar fights to hold technical support after last week’s selling pressure.

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Morning Coffee Update:

Weekend rains across winter wheat areas concern traders about damage and potential poor quality. However the rain across Midwest row crop areas should prove to be beneficial. Corn conditions are expected to be near record good/excellent right now.

This afternoons planting progress should show corn planting is nearly 85% complete compared to 76% average with soybeans 50% done verses 38% average.

On Friday’s Commitment of traders report managed futures were about even in corn while they reduced short positions in wheat by 6,720 contracts. They sold 21,271 contracts of soybeans making them net short 50,451 contracts.

NOPA Crush was 150.363 million bushel which beat the 147.827 expectation. It is a new record for April and beat last year by 13%. USDA’s Sep – Aug goal is 1.805 million for all crush plants. There is about 82 million bushels of crush that are not NOPA members which makes NOPA crush goal of 1.723 million bushel for the marketing year. To hit USDA’s goal we need to crush 516 million bushel by NOPA members from May through August. That would be 8.3% over last year.

Russia lifted the duty on wheat exports to help domestic producers which would boost overseas sales by one million tonnes. The Russian government is still trying to decide on a new formula for calculating the wheat exporting duty which could take effect after July 1.

Cash market bids are steady for soybeans while corn seems to be drifting lower.

Chart support in the July soybeans is 9.49 and 9.35 which will be key to price directions this week. November’s key support is 9.27 ½.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported an average rise of 1 percent in the value of prime farmland in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the prior three months, with values holding steady from a year ago.

June hog futures made new highs for the move last week and sold off late on profit taking and bearish product price outlook. The USDA WASDE report put the 2015 pork production at a record 24.41 billion pounds up 6.8% year over year.

Cattle futures are battling the outlook for lower product values and the discount of futures to cash.

Dressed beef values were weaker with choice down 2.81 and select up .21. The CME Feeder Index is 220.40. Pork cutout values are down .89.

Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT

  • Jul Corn   2 3/4
  • Jul Beans 2 1/4     
  • Jul Wheat   6 1/4
  • Jul Soymeal 1.20
  • Jun Dollar     .45
  • Jun S&P   -4.00
  • Jun Crude   .32
  • Jun Gold    5.40

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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