Weekend Rains Push Farther South Than Expected

Published on: 21:36PM Jun 24, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 24, 2019.

Grain markets are higher despite more favorable weather for crop development over the next week throughout most of the cornbelt region. Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to turn warmer, which will begin to accelerate growth of corn and soybeans, according to U.S. weather firm Maxar.  Trade will continue to watch weather developments and trade agreement developments.

Last week, July corn futures down 9.5 cents, July soybean contracts up 6.75 cents and July wheat futures down 10.75 cents. Soyoil futures up 81 points and soymeal futures down $7.50/ton.

Weekly crop progress report will be released today at 2 p.m. CST.  Trade is looking for corn planting at 98% complete (92% last week, 100% last year and 100% 5- year average).  Corn condition rating at 57-58% GTE (59% GTE last week).  Soybean planting expected at 87% (77% last week, 100% last year and 95% 5-year average). The first soybean condition rating is likely to be 57% GTE (75% GTE last year, 69% GTE average and 55% GTE low in 1993).  Hard red Spring wheat rating at 79% (77% last week).  US winter wheat rating at 66% GTE (64% GTE last week).

CFTC Commitment of Traders report (as of 6/18/19) showed managed funds bought 32,303 corn contracts for a net long position of 143,515 contract, soybean’s short position shrunk 35,848 contracts to -55,307 net short position , wheat increased  20,972 contracts to 22,713 net long position, soyoil short position shrunk 11,000 to -43,000 net short position and soymeal long positions dropped 5,000 contracts to 0 net position.  Managed funds sold 4,418 live cattle contracts for a 36,720 net long position and sold 3,814 lean hog contracts for a 35,111 net long position.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump at the G20 summit in the Japanese city of Osaka at the end of this week.  Both the Chinese and U.S. teams are making preparations for the Xi-Trump meeting, said China's Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Jun.

President Trump spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about Middle East stability and the oil market, the White House said, after tensions with Iran prompted a rise in oil prices.  "The two leaders discussed Saudi Arabia’s critical role in ensuring stability in the Middle East and in the global oil market.  They also discussed the threat posed by the Iranian regime’s escalatory behavior," White House spokesman Hogan Gidley said.

FranceAgriMer estimated 80% of French soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition in the week ending June 17 (80% last week, 75% last year).

Cattle on Feed report showed On-feed (June 1st) at 101.6% over last year (101.4 average estimate, 102.3 last month) at 11.74 million head.  May placements at 97.2% (95.8 average estimate, 108.7 last month) at 2.064 million head. May marketings at 100.7% (100.8 average estimate, 106.9% last month) at 2.070 million head.

USDA's Cold Storage report showed May beef stocks at 403.552 million lbs. (27 million lbs. under last month).  May pork stocks at 628.660 million lbs. (7 million lbs. increase from last month).

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.90 and select down 1.93. The CME feeder index is 131.43.  Pork cut-out values were down 0.71.