Wet Forecast Remains Increasing Harvest Concerns
Oct 04, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 4, 2018!
Grain Market traders have had quiet, mixed markets with low volume and some profit taking on long positions in recent sessions which carried over into the overnight market. Updated weather forecasts continue to cause harvest delay concerns around the U.S., with a few comments of quality concerns also starting to creep in. Wheat has stayed firm after Russia threatened to suspend loading in some export zones due to quality issues, while Australia's drought continues.
Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT, and analysts are expecting to see some big numbers. Traders hope to see 2018/19 corn sales of 1,000,000 to 1,600,000 tonnes, soybeans 900,000 to 1,500,000, wheat sales of 250,000 to 550,000, and soymeal of 200,000 to 500,000.
Weekly ethanol production fell in the latest week from 1.036 million barrels per day for the week ending 09/21 to now 1.015 million for 09/28. There was a drop on a weekly basis but this week was still 0.5% over last year. The year to date pace is 1.0% over last year.
Corn & Soybean Basis Bids rise at river terminals throughout the U.S. midwest. Spot basis bids rose 4 cents for corn and 10 cents for soybeans at terminals on the Mississippi River. The Illinois River terminal saw bids rise 3 cents for corn and 8 cents for soybeans.
Australia had its driest September on record last month, and though spring rains are forecast this week across parts of the continent's east that has seen the worst drought in years, the season is predicted to offer little relief from the dry weather. (Reuters)
Managed Money Funds were buyers yesterday with traders estimating they bought 10,500 corn contracts, 7,500 soybeans, 8,000 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil.
Chinese Officials confirm U.S. crude oil shipments have “totally stopped”. Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data shows U.S. crude oil shipment to China were completely stopped at the beginning of September 2018.
Fed Cattle Exchange had no sales on 358 head of cattle offered on the weekly auction. One packer bid at $111 but was rejected by the seller. Cash cattle has traded at $111 for three consecutive weeks.
USDA Iowa/Southern Minnesota released the weekly hog weight report showing an increase in live weights from 278.5 to 280 lbs. (last year at 281.9 lbs, 0.7% over this year).
December Live Hogs traded sharply lower pulling off of resistance levels closing at $57.15. Next level of resistance is at $59.15 with support at $53.82.
December Live Cattle closed $1.05 lower closing well below critical resistance at the $119 level, support remains at $116.62.
Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.47 and select down 1.68. The CME Feeder Index is at 157.84. Pork cutout value was down 0.11.