When Will Trade Get Excited About Planting Delays?
Apr 18, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for April 18, 2018.
Grain markets are range bound waiting for time to pass or weather to clear for corn planting. Traders are aware that the US farmer can plant the corn crop quickly under the right conditions. When will planters get started? May 1st will be a date of focus for bulls.
A significant rain event will still occur across much of the hard-red winter wheat region Friday through Saturday. This evening’s GFS model run was very similar to the midday model run for this storm. Meaningful rainfall is also expected in the most drought-stricken areas, such as the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas. This will still be very important for crop development and spring planting and will provide some relief from the dryness; however, more rain will be needed. Meaningful follow-up rainfall in southwestern hard red winter wheat areas after this weather disturbance passes remains unlikely for a while. (World Weather Inc.)
Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of 8,500 corn contracts on Tuesday. They were net buyers of 5,250 soybean and 3,500 contracts of wheat.
Cordonnier boosts 2017-18 Brazil corn crop estimate by 1.0 mmt to 87 mmt. He says, “The crop looked healthy, robust, with a good color, and the soil moisture was more than adequate” after his inspection of crops in central Brazil.
May grain and oilseed options will expire on Friday. Largest open interest May corn remains in the 3.70 puts and the 3.90 calls. In soybeans the May 10.40 level has large open interest in both puts and calls.
Bipartisan group of senators from U.S. farm states pressed the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday to stop issuing hardship waivers from the nation's biofuels laws to refiners and to name the companies that already have them. (Reuters)
Corn spot basis bids were 2 to 5 cents per bushel higher at Midwest river terminals on Tuesday Merchandisers are suggesting slow farmer sales and weakening barge shipping costs are the reason for the jump.
Cash cattle markets are at a standstill with asking prices at 122 in the south or 2.00 higher than last week. Weather conditions and packer demand should provide support this week.
Live cattle futures have rallied the past two sessions but failed to close at high end of trading range. Traders are concerned about the so-called wall of cattle in front of us. However, going into the best beef demand period of the year and profitable retail margins is providing support. Basis advantage for futures hedgers is a reason for moving cattle early. A lot of moving parts for cattle traders. June live cattle futures have resistance at 106.17 with support at 101.20.
April Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm CDT. Trade estimates are on Feed 107.5%, Placed 90.3% and Marketed 95.9%.
China's pork output rose 2.1 percent to 15.4 million tonnes in the first quarter compared with the period during the prior year, official data showed, after farmers rushed to slaughter their pigs amid a rapid decline in prices. Live hog prices in China plunged by around 30 percent in the first quarter, in one of the steepest declines ever recorded, after a significant increase in production by new farms. (Reuters)
June lean hog futures are range bound between the 20-day (75.27) and 50-day (78.10) moving averages.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .34 and select down .40. The CME Feeder Index is 137.75. Pork cutout value is up .06.
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