Will Farmers Plant Corn Instead of Soybeans?
Apr 19, 2017
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for April 19, 2017.
Grain markets are mixed as the weather forecast suggests a window of opportunity for fieldwork will open next week. The US Dollar recovers some of yesterday’s slide as Britain’s newly slated election, France’s Presidential election this weekend and North Koreas next move keep macro trader’s tensions high.
Allendale's April Ag Leader’s Webinar is set for April 25 at 8:00 pm central time. This month we'll speak to AgriGold Agronomy Manager, Mike Kavanaugh about the potential of the 2017 corn crop, and his thoughts on acreage expectations. Click here to sign up for the free webinar.
May corn futures triggered additional selling when closing below the 20 day and 200 day moving averages. May wheat futures have held the lower range of support near the 4.20 level.
Mexico's deputy minister for foreign trade, Juan Carlos Baker said Mexico expects to complete negotiations on a trade deal with Argentina involving cars and agricultural products around the end of the year.
Stats Canada will release their estimate for 2017 crop seeds on Friday morning. Trade estimates suggest a reduction in all wheat acres from 23.21 last year to 22.4 in 2017. Canola acres are expected to increase from 20.36 in 201 6 to 21.3 in 2017.
Ukrainian farmers have seeded about 94 percent of the expected spring grains area and 8 percent of their planned 4.5 million hectares of maize.
Ukraine's UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy raises its forecast for the 2017 grain harvest to 61.4 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 60.9 million tonnes.
EIA crude inventories will be release later today. Trade is expecting U.S. oil inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, on average, in the week ended April 14. Gasoline stockpiles are expected to show a decrease of 2 million barrels and distillates stocks could fall by 1.1 million barrels.
Funds were estimated net sellers of 14,000 corn and 9,000 soybeans on Tuesday. They were thought to be net buyers of 2,000 wheat contracts.
US Dollar fell sharply on news the prime minister in England called for an election to solidify her party and Britain’s exit from the EU. Technical support now crosses at the March low of 98.67. France’s 1st round of Presidential elections is only 4 days away.
President Donald Trump promised to defend American dairy farmers who have been hurt by Canada’s protectionist trade practices, during a visit to Wisconsin.
Fed Cattle Exchange auction starts at 10:00 am this morning. There are 4446 head consigned.
Country auctions early this week have light volume with mostly steady prices with last week. Packers were active buyers last week in the direct trade therefore they may be tougher to deal with for the balance of the month.
Allendale’s COF estimate is: On Feed 100%, Placements 108.8 and Marketings 110% of a year ago. This would be the largest February marketing in six years. The USDA will release report on Friday at 2:00 pm.
Live cattle futures at the CME posted record open interest on Monday suggesting more buyers getting in the market. Today open interest report may give us a signal of exhaustion as June Cattle made new contract highs and close only a few ticks higher.
Lean hog futures fell through support levels on Tuesday closing at levels not seen since October of 2016. June contract may find support at 70.00 level with resistance at 74.00. Traders continue to talk about the strong seasonal tendency of hogs to trend higher into summer.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.86 and select up 1.42. The CME Feeder Index is 135.82. Pork cutout value is up .52.
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