Will Fund Buying Push Into May?
May 01, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 01, 2018.
Grain markets react to the latest in US planting numbers as progress is being made, but at a rate that is a little slower than expected. Traders will look to see if the new month will bring new money into the ag markets.
Crop progress as of Sunday had US corn plantings at 17% an increase of 12% from last week, and just below the average trade guess of 18%. By this week last year, corn was 32% planted. Soybeans were reported 5% planted, also below the trade estimate of 7%. Last year, 9% of the crop was planted. Spring wheat was 10% planted.
Winter wheat showed a slight improvement over last week, reported 33% good to excellent, an increase from last week's 31%. Analysts were expected the crop to be 32% GTE. The wheat quality tour continues today, and will likely continue to show a poor crop.
USDA's March crush is expected at 183.2 million bushels according to a Reuters poll of analysts. The range of estimates was 180.6 to 184.4. Last month, USDA reported 164.95 mb were crushed. The report is due today at 2:00 PM CDT.
Export inspections for the week ending 04/26 had wheat exports of 376,256 tonnes, corn 1,465,265, and soybeans at 679,379. The corn and wheat numbers were within the range of estimates, while the soybean number was slightly better than expected.
U.S. ethanol makers have made quick moves to purchase cheap American sorghum stocks after Chinese cancelations of the crop. Chinese buyers had opted-out of the purchases after the government added anti-dumping tariffs as part on the US-China trade dispute.
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 12,500 corn, 5,500 wheat, and 500 soyoil during yesterday's session. They were estimated sellers of 5,500 soybeans, and 3,000 soyoil.
U.S. President Donald Trump has postponed a decision on imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, the European Union and Mexico until June 1, and has reached an agreement in principle with Argentina, Australia and Brazil, a source familiar with the decision said on Monday. The decision came just hours before temporary exemptions were set to expire at 12:01 a.m. today. (Reuters)
A busy economic calendar continues today with ISM Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM CDT. Auto/Truck sales will be reported at 1:00 PM.
Hog futures are still keeping a bit of a discount to last year's pricing in the mix. Today's June lean hog settlement is 12% under last year's expiration. The current July is 18% under last year.
Weekly Comprehensive Boxed Beef report showed that end users slowed on their procurement activities last week. In the previous five weeks end users were buying beef for extended delivery with some strength. During this period their activity ranged from 6% to 49% over last year in the same period.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 2.68 and select up .47. The CME Feeder Index is 139.31. Pork cutout value is up .12.
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