Will New Month Bring Buying Interest to Grain Markets?
Sep 27, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 27, 2018.
Grain Market Traders are looking ahead to tomorrow’s USDA stocks report, month-end book squaring and the possibility of new money entering into the markets next week. Weather forecasts are creating concerns about harvest delays.
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks will be announced tomorrow at 11:00 AM CDT. Trade is estimating Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.01 billion bushels, which is 12 percent smaller than a year ago. The Sept. 1 soybean supply is estimated at 401 million bushels, which is 33 percent larger than a year ago.
Weekly Export Sales are due to be released at 7:30 AM this morning. Trade is estimating: Wheat 250,000 – 500,000 mt, Corn 900,000 – 1,300,000 mt and soybeans 600,000 – 1,000,000 mt.
Weekly Ethanol Production Report showed production of 1.036 million barrels per day versus 1.051 last week. The year to date pace is 1.2% over last year. USDA’s whole-year goal for corn for ethanol is 0.9% over last year.
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange projected Argentina soybean exports will grow 15.4 million tonnes in the 2018-19 harvest season. They cited strong demand from China due to the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.
Brazil, the world's No 1 soy exporter, is expected to import around 1 million tonnes of the oilseed in coming months from its largest global competitor, the United States, as local supplies dwindle, according to Sao Paulo-based grain trader Agribrasil. (Reuters)
Managed money funds appeared cautious in yesterday's trade. Estimates had them selling 3,000 corn and 2,750 wheat. They were estimated buyers of 3,000 soybeans, 2,500 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil. Relative to recent sessions, these numbers are tame.
USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report will be released today at 2:00 PM CDT. Analyst average estimates: All Hogs 103.5%, Kept for breeding 103.2%, Kept for market 103.5% and pig crop at 103.2%.
Brazilian Government said India approved imports of Brazilian pork relieving pressure on the Indian hog market amid the rapid spread of African swine fever in neighboring China.
December Live Hogs are in a upward trending channel with resistance at $58.65 and support at $53.82.
Fed Cattle Exchange offered 242 head on Wednesday, all were no sales. Cash sales have not developed this week. Traders are expecting steady to higher prices.
December Live Cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday testing the highs made in February and March 2018 and November 2017. Critical resistance is the $119 level and support at $116.62.
Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.88 and select down 1.92. The CME Feeder Index is at 158.04. Pork cutout value was up 0.42.