Will Stock Market Volatility Impact Commodity Money Flow?
Oct 25, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 25, 2018!
Grain Markets look to export sales this morning for the next indicator of the impact of the trade war between the US and China. Outside markets may have an impact on money flow in commodities as significant volatility remains in equities.
Weekly export sales for the week ending October 18th will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes, corn 400,000 to 800,000, and soybeans 300,000 to 700,000. Historically, this is a big sale week for soybeans.
Chinese soybean imports remain a hot topic in the ag markets. Allendale's Rich Nelson gave us his take on the state of the Chinese soybean situation as well as expectations for what may come next. Listen to the free webinar here.
Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev and traders of Russian grain will discuss exports at a routine meeting on Oct. 26, three sources informed about the meeting told Reuters on Wednesday. Some have speculated that Russia will need to limit exports this year due to a smaller crop.
USDA's attache to Argentina estimates the countries 2018/19 wheat exports at 13.6 million tonnes, below USDA's official estimate due to tightening supplies. Corn production was estimated at 41.5 million tonnes, above USDA's official forecast due to an increase in estimated harvested acres.
Argentina's truck drivers' union ended a nationwide strike just hours after it began on Wednesday, saying that the government would take measures to lessen the effects of high inflation and new export taxes. (Reuters)
Ethanol production increased over the previous week at 1.024 million barrels per day. For this week, that production number was under last year by 1.4%. The year to date pace is 1.3% over last year. USDA is estimating production at 0.9% over last year.
November options go off the board tomorrow. First notice for November contracts is next week Wednesday, October 31st.
Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 corn contracts, 10,500 soybeans, 7,000 wheat, 5,500 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil in yesterday's trade.
Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will be out this morning at 7:30 AM CDT, along with Durable Orders, Retail and Wholesale Inventories. Pending Home Sales are due at 9:00, and Natural Gas Inventories will be released at 9:30. Will the day's economic data impact the recent volatility in equities?
Limit up trade, and a limit up close, were noted for the first two hog contracts yesterday. As a result they will have expanded limits today.
China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that it will be banning the feeding of kitchen waste to pigs after discovering that the practice is the cause of early cases of African swine fever.
Cash cattle trade has been steady for six weeks now at $111, but the soon to expire October contract suggests $113 now. The December contract is pricing in $117/$118.
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 1.11 and select up 0.96. The CME Feeder Index is at 154.93. Pork cutout value was down .32.