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All about supply for now

Published on: 12:30PM Jul 10, 2015


It is R-day so trade does look a bit light overnight but has been supportive nevertheless.  It certainly does not hurt that some of the world concerns that have been weighing on traders minds have subsided overnight as well.  Greece has moved a step closer to reconciliation with the EU, the Chinese stock market has rebounded and the US Dollar tanked overnight.

Gauging from the action and fund buying witnessed yesterday and into this morning, it would appear that the trade has positioned for a positive report from the USDA, which would also suggest that it will be difficult to receive a bullish surprise.  Even if there was one, after today it will be all about the weather and if we can believe the current forecast, it would appear favorable for crop development.  Keep in perspective as well that about the only things bulls have going for them at this point is weather and crop concerns as the demand side of the equation is anything but encouraging.  New crop sales of beans are running 46% under the same pace a year ago and new corn 25% below and if that remains consistent, once we have moved beyond the supply side of the marketing year, bulls may be a little more difficult to coax out of the barn.

Once again, here are the estimates for this mornings report: Average guesses; Corn yield 165.2, production 13.414 billion and ending stocks of 1.549.  Bean yield at 45.1, production of 3.781 billion and carryout of 380.  All wheat production, 2.145 billion, with a carryout of 860 million.  We will post the updates as soon as we have them.

Have a Good Weekend