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While I thought it was difficult yesterday to unearth something fresh to discuss in the marketplace, but as it has turned out, that was just taste of what lay ahead for today. Sure, there are still stories bouncing around concerning what Russia will eventually do with wheat exports this year and Canada, and the U.S. continue to negotiate. China and the U.S. also continue the dialog, but obviously, nothing has come forward that would even remotely suggest the trade war is over.
Basically, that leaves us to look forward to the upcoming September reports, and there are a few estimates hitting the wires. Informa did release their numbers this morning and have pegged corn production at 14.392 billion bushels derived from a yield of 178.8 bpa. This was up 2 bushels from their last estimate. For beans, they have come in with production of 4.698 billion and a yield of 52.9. Previously they had the yield at 50.
Bloomberg is the first major newswire that I have seen publish trade estimates, and they come in as follows; Corn production at 14.516 billion using a yield of 177.6 bpa. The August USDA numbers were 14.586 with a yield of 178.4. 2017/18 ending stocks are expected to come through at 2.022 billion and 2018/19 at 1.614 billion and the last USDA numbers were 2.027 and 1.684 billion respectively. For beans, the average survey estimate called for total production of 4.643 billion from a yield of 52.3. This compares with the August USDA figure of 4.586 and 51.6. The average estimate for 2017/18 carryout came through at 426 million and 2018/19 at 828 million. Last month Uncle Sam had these pegged at 430 million and 785 million.
Looking at the world survey estimates, we find 2017/18 corn stock at 192 MMT and 2018/19 dropping down to 154.3 MMT. Last month the government posted figures of 193.3 and 155.5. In beans, the old crop stocks are expected to come in at 95.5 MMT and new crop at 107.3 MMT. This compares with the August estimates of 95.6 and 105.9. World wheat ending stocks are estimated to fall in at 257.4 MMT versus that August figure of 259. Finally, the survey is calling for Brazilian corn to total 82.2 MMT and beans at 119.3 MMT and Argentine corn at 32.2 and beans at 36.7.
While I have mentioned it numerous times previously, these world stocks for corn and wheat, sans Chinese wheat stocks, are anything but bearish. We will just have to wait and see if market participants feel the same way after the report has been released.
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