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The final countdown to the September report is underway and gauging from the action this morning; it would appear the trade expects a neutral to positive figure for the grains and another confirmation of just how negative the overall soybean picture is today. We shall see if anyone is disappointed.
Moving beyond today’s release, the focus of the trade will most likely be on harvest and mother nature willing, should begin to progress at a rapid pace. For farmers out on the eastern side of the country, many have already kicked into high gear trying to get ahead of hurricane Florence making landfall. On the last update I read, it would appear she is headed for the coast of North and/or South Carolina and could wreak havoc on crops and livestock. North Carolina is the 2ndlargest hog producing state in this nation as well as holding significant numbers of birds, and I understand farmers are doing all they can to prep for heavy rainfall. Of course, much of that is limited to making sure manure pits have been reduced and buildings secure. For hog producers who have already experienced significant financial stress from the trade wars this year, Florence must feel like the other boot coming down.
China updated import estimates for their new crop year (Oct 1) this morning and have slashed the overall bean imports. They now project they will be importing 83.65 MMT, versus the previous estimate of 93.85 and last year’s total of 93.9 MMT. Do recognize that the decrease is not only in response to the trade war but also due to changes in rations. Do note though; they raised the projection for corn imports by 1.8 MMT to 3.3 MMT with plans for more corn in feed rations as well as an increase in the production of ethanol.
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