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I was greeted by generally red values on my quote screen this morning, but for the grain markets at least, this will have turned out to have been a positive week. Were we to close right now, July corn would have gained nearly 8-cents and has reached the highest level traded since August of last year and even more impressive is the July wheat which is currently 33-cents higher and has also reached to the loftiest levels traded since August. The same cannot be said for beans, and by no means has this market collapsed but we currently sit around 34-cents lower for the week and stuck in the same range that we have traded within since February. In some respects, in light of much of the news that beans are contending with right now such as a record Brazilian crop, an absence of our largest customer China from the market and the potential for very large planted acreage in this country we have not done all that bad. Yes, there has been an issue with Argentina this year but by no means does the world supply of beans appear to be in jeopardy. Note that since late 2014, July bean have only traded north of 10.80 a total of 8-weeks and that was back in the summer of 2016. Even with the lower action this week, we are still only around 4% lower than that resistance level (10.80) and do not act overly anxious to move out of the current range. Do not take this as a reason to assume we will stay here as I would not at all be surprised to witness a return trip to the 10.00 mark, but I would also point out that whenever a market does not react in the fashion in which the fundamentals would suggest it should, it probably means we are missing something that is below the surface (no pun intended).
On the global scene, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged now estimates that the corn harvest in that nation is 32.5% complete, which is an increase of just 1.6% in the past week. It would appear that farmers have been focused on beans as they estimate bean harvest has reached 61.8% complete, which was up 7.8% for the week. Across the Atlantic, farmers in France, just like here in the US, have made solid corn planting progress in the past week, which is currently estimated to be 57% complete versus last week at 33%. This still lags last year at 84%. Ratings for most of the small grains in that nation improved slightly as well.
Here at home, the Kansas wheat tour has wrapped up and not surprisingly, the news is not great. The projection for the state crop is 243.3 million bushels, which would be 90 million below last year and if correct would be the lowest production in that state since 1989.
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