With conditions in the southern plains and southwest still set to broil, wheat bulls have found new life, which in turn has helped unearth a few buyers in the corn market as well. Realistically, the same cannot be said of beans though. While wheat has not rallied enough as of yet to count it a confirmed reversal as we remain with the same ranges of the previous two weeks, it is a reminder that at this time of year, weather trumps all other factors. Realistically, were it not for the drought in that part of the country, wheat nor corn or beans would have much to cheer them on at this time.
Weekly exports sales were released this morning and positive news within the figures was sparse. Wheat was transitioning from one crop year to the next, so the figures were dominated by rolling sales forward. For the 2017/18 crop year we posted a negative 1,324,200 MT or 48.67 million bushels. For 2018/19 crop year the sales, with the roll in of 1,304,700 MT from the last year, posted a total of 1,555,700, so for a net new sales, 250,900 MT or 9.22 million bushels. This was pretty much right in the middle of expectations. Top sales went to unknown destinations with 103.5k MT, followed by the Philippines at 51k and then Mexico with 30.9k. Beans sales did not even measure up to this lukewarm demand. For the week we sold 164,800 MT or 2.75 million bushels. This was 40% below the previous week and 5% below the 4-week average and noticeably absent from the list was China after a number of rumors that have suggested they purchased US beans last week. The top purchaser was the Netherlands with 105k MT, followed by Mexico with 31.9k and then Colombia with 21.6k. Actually, China was on the list but for cancelation of 39.1k MT. Even new crop sales were disappointing, coming in at just 34,700 MT. At 838,600 MT or 33.02 million bushels, corn sales appear decent by comparison but even this was 16% below the previous week and 5% below the 4-week average. Top sales were Mexico with 247.5k MT, then Vietnam with 136.8k and finally Colombia at 85.4k. Sales for the 2018/19 crop year tallied 418,300 MT. The only commodity that appears to have registered solid sales last week was rice, which set a marketing year high. As an addendum, total export numbers for the month of April were released by the US Census Bureau. Compared with the same month a year ago, we exported 40% more corn, 47.3% more soymeal, 34.3% more cotton and 109.1% more ethanol. On the negative side of the ledger, we shipped 11.8% fewer beans, 27.7% less wheat and 17.5% less soy oil.
We have begun to see trade survey estimates begin to roll in for the report next week, which break down as follows; For US wheat production, the average estimates lines up at 1.822 billion bushels, which compares with last month at 1.821. Of this figure, the trade is looking for 1.190 billion in winter wheat. The projected ending stocks for the 2017/18 wheat is 1.079 and for 2018/19, 958 million. Both of these would be an increase from May. Seeing there should be no changes to the corn and bean yield estimates this month, the focus is on ending stocks. For 2017/18 corn is expected to come in around 2.166 billion (-16 mill.) beans at 522 million (-8 mill.) For next year, the average estimate for corn is 1.663 billion (-19 mill.) and for beans 417 million ( 2 mill.). The average estimate for Argentine corn is 32.53 MMT (-.47) and beans 37.89 (-1.11) and for Brazil the corn crop 84.47 MMT (-2.53) and beans 117.43 ( .43). Global ending stocks of 2017/18 are forecast to come through at 269.99 MMT in wheat, 193.39 MMT for corn and 91.35 MMT beans. For next year then, the average estimates are 263 MMT wheat, 157.56 MMT corn, and 86.74 MMT beans. Do keep in mind that if these are correct, the picture looking out through the next year remains price positive.