I need to be careful what I wish for
Oct 16, 2017
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You should always be careful what you ask for. After lamenting for some time the lack of moisture that we here in Northern Illinois have received since July, mother nature responded this past weekend and appeared intent on making up for the losses. Many areas received in excess of 5 inches of rain and while the first 1 to 2 many have been able to soak in, the rest could not, resulting in more than a few flooded rivers, creeks, and wet holes. That said, the sun is shining this morning, and we should see corn harvest resume within a day of so, it may take a few more days before anyone venture back into beans. I have read a number of reports from across the Midwest concerning bean shattering as the weather continues to shift from wet to dry and back again so I would imagine producers are getting a bit anxious at this point.
The bean market has begun the week with a minor amount of pressure but considering that late last week we reached the highest levels traded since late July, a slight pullback is understandable. Underpinning the prices are the slow harvest, ongoing dry weather concerns in Brazil and more export business. This morning in the daily system another 227,300 MT of sales were reported to unknown destinations. While it is difficult to imagine that we have a runaway bean market at this time, it would appear that we could have potential to reach up and visit the upper end of the trading range between 10.20 and 10.50 that has realistically capped November futures for the past three years now. While I continue to believe the long-term picture in this market appears bullish, but one would have to think that we will need to see a significant weather problem, in either in South or North America before we will be able to extend through this tough overhead resistance.
It should be noted as well that the crude oil market has experienced renewed buying interest in the past week, which is realistically just a continuation of the general strength we have seen since the end of June. While the OPEC production cap has helped, it would appear that the true driver here, no pun intended, is growing global demand. OPEC now projects that consumption is on track to reach 33.1 million barrels per day in 2018, which is an increase of 200,000 bpd from the forecast they issued just a month ago. Granted the market and OPEC very well recognize that prices moving above the $55 to $60 zone would stimulate increased production from U.S. Shale, but right now that does not appear to be a stumbling block for bulls. Note that the Brent market has already pushed to the highest level in two years during the past couple weeks and appears intent on extending. Due to the fact that additional production could come on line rather quickly, I would not expect to see a runaway advance, but the long-term picture does appear positive, which is a good thing for commodities in general.