The Hueber Report

The on again/off again Russian wheat export saga continues. Yesterday, representatives from the Russian government and grain exporters met another time to discuss the overall situation and the resulting verdict; No threat of curtailing wheat exports. Something tells me this will not be the last word on the topic this year but for now, it is business as usual, and the wheat futures here have responded in kind with a lower opening.  Keep in mind that this does not erase all the bounce we enjoyed last week, but certainly reduces the amount of ammunition that the bulls have left to fight with at this time. 

That said, there could be a little support from another part of the globe, this time Argentina.  While chaotic and often disastrous economic conditions seem to be the norm for that nation, the recent collapse in the Peso has prompted President Macri to implement austerity measures, part of which is to impose a 10% tax on grain exports.  This has led some to speculate that with this, farmers will delay wheat sales and as they ready to move to the field for planting, could mean fewer acres of corn. Of course, the flip side of that is seeing the that export tax on beans and products is being reduced, that would suggest that soy acreage could be higher.   

Macros are not providing much help as we begin this new month either.  Metals are under solid pressure and the dollar strong, but at least energies are witnessing a little bounce. Note that regularly scheduled government releases will be delayed one day this week due to the Labor Day holiday, but realistically the report that most will be looking forward to will be the September production and supply/demand estimates next week. Trade estimate should begin to filter in later this week. 

I continue to expect to witness an early seasonal low this year with harvest approaching rapidly but evidently; we still need to send time chopping around the current levels before prices can emerge from here.