The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Hueber Report is a grain marketing advisory service and brokerage firm that places the highest importance on risk management and profitable farming.
Click here for a free trial
We are witnessing a nice little rebound this morning but gauging from the information at hand; one has to suspect it is more of a Tuesday undo bounce than any type of renewed buying interest. Even with the breakdown yesterday, the grains have not really surrendered a significant amount of territory, but over in beans, it would appear that the vultures have now returned to pick the remaining scraps from the bull carcasses. While the Argentine problems held this market in check for weeks, it seemed inevitable that the large Brazilian crop and the trade squabble, and subsequent cut off of beans sales with China would rue the day. Keeping this break in perspective, we have certainly been at lower levels even this calendar year and visited this range a month ago when the rhetoric of the trade spat began, but I am not too confident we have seen the worst of the price action just yet for this market. It was announced late yesterday that top economic officials from China as scheduled to travel to Washington DC next week to continue discussions but obviously, the talks in Beijing last week did not produce anything encouraging.
There were no real surprises in the planting and conditions report issued yesterday. Corn planted moved up 22 percentage points and stood at 39%. This is basically right where the trade expected to see the numbers and is now just 5% behind the average pace. Illinois jumped 42% to 74% complete and is now 18% ahead of the historical average. Soybean progress was not as strong as many suggested, but we have now pushed a couple of points ahead of average with 15% in the ground. Sorghum, cotton, rice, and even sugar beets have all now at least made it to average planting numbers. Spring wheat (30% vs. 51% average) and barley (42% vs. 59%) are still behind, but the overall winter wheat conditions improved just a touch with good/excellent now at 34%.
There should be additional news from Washington later today as well, but only a handful of Whitehouse people know if the ag community will likely appreciate it or not. There is going to be a closed-door session with Senators at which the President is supposed to unveil his biofuel plan. I do not want to try and read the tea leaves, but it is interesting that CVR Refining, which is majority owned by Carl Icahn, was given a hardship exemption from blending standards just last week. Could it be the Ag community is going to be tossed a bone to try and help compensate for some of the China spat?
No comments have been posted to this Blog Post