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It would appear that the trade has grown numb to any additional deterioration in crop conditions, which is quite understandable for a couple of reasons. The first is, as have discussed previously due to the fact that this is a normal occurrence as crops enter the late stages of the development and transition towards maturity. The second is the fact that the preliminary estimates that have come from the Pro Farmer crop tour seem to have dispelled doubts about the recent USDA estimate. In Ohio, the tour was finding soy pods counts of around 1248 per square yard versus last year at 1096 with similar results in South Dakota with counts of around 1025 compared with 900 last year and the three-year average of 975. For corn, in Ohio, the average yield estimate was nearly identical to the USDA at 179.6, which compares with last year at 164.6 and in South Dakota, they found an average of 178 versus last year at 148. Granted, the heavy-weight states are ahead yet this week, and maybe this sets an unrealistic precedence to hold up to, but for today at least, it cast a cloud over prices. By the way, corn in the dent stage is at 44% compared with an average 26% and beans setting pods at 91% versus 83% average.
As it turns out, last weeks’ positive wheat story, speculation that Russia could curtail exports, has turned into this weeks disappointment. Already the Russian government had denied any intention of doing such, but it appears that rumors exporters would attempt to really push current shipments in an effort to grab their portion of the pie deflated any supply squeeze ideas, at least for now. This all sounds a bit suspect but for many probably sounds better than to say the market is technically overbought and without concrete bullish news is in line for a corrective break.
We did have one announcement of a solid export sale this morning. 250,000 MT of soy meal were sold to unknown destinations.
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