We have a mixed bag of trade here this morning in the grain/soy markets, but the one thing that appears consistent is that ranges are small and no one seems anxious to jump on or off the ship at this point. In other words, typical pre-trade action. This is not to say we have nothing to talk about other than tomorrows number as this afternoon we will see the release of the quarterly hogs and pigs report and already this morning, weekly export sales have been released and were not bad.
For the week ending June 21st, we sold 563,700 MT of wheat or 20.7 million bushels, which was just above the high-end estimates. This was also 20% above last week and 80% above two weeks ago. The top purchasers were Mexico with 86.7k MT, followed by South Korea at 84.8 and then the Philippines with 45.2k. Corn sales fell well within the range of estimates but were five times greater than the miserable figure last week and 16% above the 4-week average, coming in at 849,900 MT or 33.5 million. South Korea was the number one buyer with 206.7k MT, followed by Mexico at 195.2k and then Japan with 163.6k. This now brings the marketing YTD figure to 2.254 billion bushels of 98% of the USDA target of 2.3 billion. Ten weeks are left in the year, so we now need to average 4.6 million per week to hit the mark. Sales for 2018/19 were not bad at 636,800 MT. Soybeans sales came in at 358,500 MT or 13.2 million bushels, which was actually above the high end of estimates. Top buyers were Vietnam with 79.7k MT following by the Netherlands at 76.7 and then Bangladesh with 64k. 60k MT of sales were switched from China to Iran, and there was a net reduction of 120k from China. 2018/19 sales were 642,300 MT. For the marketing YTD, we are a bit more than 1% ahead of the projected 2.065 billion bushels standing currently ay 2.087 billion. Meal sales were up 27% from last week at 146.3k MT and oil up 91% at 30.5k. Cotton sales were up 83% from the prior week, beef up 10% and pork 24%.
That would seem to be the perfect segue into the Hogs, and Pigs report that will be released this afternoon, not mention that I snapped this shot just outside of my office window this morning. The trade estimate for all Hogs and Pigs stands at 103% of last year. Kept for breeding 101.7% and Market hogs at 103.1. The Mar-May pig crop is estimated to be 103.4% and the various weight groups as also pretty consistent with estimates ranging between 102.7% (180 ) to a high of 103.3 (50-119).
Of course, tomorrow is the stocks and acreage reports and once again, here are the current trade estimates; Quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st– Corn 5.27 billion bushels, Beans 1.215 billion and Wheat 1.095 billion. Corn acreage is estimated to come in at 88.46 million, versus 88.03 in March, beans at 89.68 million compared with 88.98 and wheat at 47.15 compared with 47.34.
One final note of interest, as we draw closer to T-Day, July 6th
, the ag markets are not the only ones growing concerned about an escalating trade war. Equities are having a difficult time sustaining strength after the flush out witnessed on Monday. As I suggested yesterday, if this worsens, it could be the trigger that encourages the White House to seek out a different course of action.