Will Soybeans have a Wild Week?

Published on: 01:57AM Nov 28, 2018

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

Turn around Tuesday was in full effect for Soybeans after a rough start to the week. On Monday soybeans were down almost 20 cents on good South American weather, a sharply lower Brazilian Real and pessimism over trade talks with China. On Tuesday soybeans rebounded more than 13 cents. With all the volatility how will this all end?

Trade headlines continue to dominate trade in many markets, but none more so than the soybeans. Seemingly daily we have somebody somewhere making (often conflicting) comments on what they think will happen. The most important of these comments coming from President Donald Trump.

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With a meeting scheduled between President Trump and Chinese President Xi during the G-20 Summit in Argentina at the end of November it seems we will continue to hang on the trade headlines a little longer. It is very unclear what will happen at this meeting but there will almost certainly be a reaction to the outcome. It is not just a yes or no situation either, there could be constructive talks that are headed toward a deal or the two sides could have a blowout and decide to end talks indefinitely.

Either way, next week could be interesting. It may be worthwhile to take a look at February options as a way to manage some risk before the meeting. Call options are available to cover short futures or cash positions while put options are available to cover unsold bushels.

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Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Find me on twitter - @thetedspread 

January Soybean Daily Chart:

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or [email protected]

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.