Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.

Trade Prepares for USDA Report

Published on: 12:01PM Nov 10, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for November 10, 2014 at 5:30 am.

Traders Focus: USDA November Supply and Demand at 11:00 AM.

Grain markets are quiet on light volume ahead of USDA Report. The US Dollar is giving back some of last week’s gains and crude oil bounces to near $80.00 a barrel.

History suggests the USDA will increase corn and soybean yields on this report. The question traders are struggling with is how much?

The following table is traders estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production put together by Reuters.

            Avg Est.     Est. Range      USDA OCT


Production    14.551  14.242-14.842       14.475    

Yield        175.233    171.4-178.6        174.2


Production     3.967    3.903-4.064        3.927

Yield         47.608      46.8-48.7         47.1 


USDA 2014/15 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

      Average of     Range of    USDA Oct.

       analysts'    analysts'      2014/15

       estimates    estimates   end-stocks

Wheat      0.660  0.634-0.682        0.654 

Corn       2.135  1.850-2.282        2.081

Soybeans   0.442  0.403-0.513        0.450

The USDA Weekly crop progress is out this afternoon. Corn harvest expected to be 80% complete compared to 79% average while soy harvest could be 93% complete vs. 92% average.

Weather forecasst keeps snow possibilities to the north and open harvest conditions for most of the cornbelt this week.

Meal basis is hanging tough although barge and rail lease rates seem to be eroding.

Barclays Capital says total global commodity assets under management fell to $286 billion at the end of October from $295 billion at the end of September.

Last week managed money funds were big buyers in the grains and oilseeds. They increased their positions in corn by 21,885 contracts to 163,673 net long. They increased net longs in soybeans, soymeal and soyoil by 10,000 to 14,000 contracts. They reduced short positions in wheat by 11,763 contracts.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

Cash cattle ended the week 1.00 to 2.00 lower than last previous week in the Southern Plains and dressed trade was 2.00 to 3.00 lower in NE. Beef values were mixed with choice down 1.41 and select up .82. Beef demand at the retailer counter is being pushed back by the cheaper pork and poultry. The CME Feeder Index is 240.54.

Hog slaughter last week was the largest since mid-January. Slaughter ran 2.4% under last year but due to higher weights pork production was only 1.3% smaller. Pork cutout values are down .56. December lean hog resistance crosses at the 20 day moving. Support is last week’s low.

Early call is steady higher based on follow through from Friday.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT                                                                     

  • Dec Corn   -1         
  • Jan Beans   3 1/2     
  • Dec Wheat   -1 1/2
  • Dec Soymeal 3.60
  • Dec Dlr     -.34
  • Dec S&P   2.25
  • Dec Crude   1.05
  • Dec Gold   -.08

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at