We are issuing a somewhat abbreviated morning comments, as the quarterly reports today are nearly the entire focus of the trade. Keep in perspective though that unless there is some type of "shocker" in the figures, markets will often turn back to the news at hand and right now that is predominately bearish.
Moisture tends to lean to the excessive side but other than disrupting wheat harvest, it is difficult to excite buyers with too much rain. We could see a little more deterioration in the crop rating for corn but overall the crop will be in great condition. That said I would expect little change in any of the crops. The latest weather forecasts that I have received predict that after the current batch of storms pass through early this week the weather turns generally drier and possibly a bit cool. With pollination rapidly advancing northward, it would be difficult to ask for a better picture. The next topic ahead could be lack of growing degree days.
While it does not seem to be headline news, the Congressional Budget Office released a report suggesting that repealing the Renewable Fuel Standards could actually lower the price of fuel. As you might suspect the Renewable Fuels Association was quick to counter the report but I suspect this has added to the negative psychology this morning in corn. Note that members of both parties are lined up on both sides of this debate and bio-fuels most certainly does not have the clout they once did in Washington. Adding to the negative corn action this morning was the Hog and Pigs report that indicated fewer hogs that expected.
According to the Commitments of Traders report, managed funds are at the lightest long position in corn and beans since February and increased shorts in wheat once again.
The estimates for 11:00 are as follows;
June 1st Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)
Avg Est. Range of Est. The Hueber Report
Corn 3.724 3.046-4.05 3.775
Beans .387 .334-.450 .410
Wheat .603 .561-.715 .715
Acreage (Million Acres)
Corn 91.787 91-92.3 92.2
Beans 82.173 80.5-83.2 82.95
Wheat 55.707 54.8-56 55.2