Afternoon Wrap Up - Where did all the seller go?

Published on: 15:25PM Mar 24, 2014

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You have to scratch pretty hard to uncover a solid reason for the rally in the grain and soy market today but nevertheless, everything closed higher.  Nothing bad came of out of the crusher meeting in China over the weekend, which probably came as a relief to some, but neither did anything positive.  The situation in Ukraine is anything but settled and the leaders of the West are meeting in Europe but I suspect there is little they can effectively do outside of a few sanctions.  Reports from Ukraine indicate that 52% of spring crops are now planted. 

Export inspections were all within expectations.  26.9 million bushels of beans were shipped during the week ending 3/20 bringing the year to date total up to 1.457 billion bushels.  This means we only need to ship a total of 73 million bushels over the next 23 weeks, or an average of 3.2 million to reach the target, which looks like a foregone conclusion at this point. For corn we moved 45 million bushels, which brings the marketing year total up to 829 million bushels or 51% of the projection.  We need to average 34.6 million per week to reach the current target.  For wheat, we moved 19.3 million bushels, bringing the YTD total up to 933 million.  To reach the targets of 1.175 billion we need to average 20.2 million per week for the next 12 weeks.

The volume was not heavy today, and it would appear that a lack of sellers allowed the strength more that any overwhelming kind of buying interest.  Look for additional choppy erratic action between now and next Monday.

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