USDA Supply Demand recap
Apr 09, 2014
April Supply/Demand Updates
The reports issued this morning were positive for corn and beans and a little negative for wheat but in all cases, were within the range of estimates.
The only change that the USDA elected to make for domestic corn was to boost exports a full 125 million bushels to 1.75 billion. This was cut directly from the ending stocks which now stand at 1.331 billion and compares with the average trade estimate of 1.403. If correct, this will be the largest export number for corn since the 2010/2011-crop year.
World corn stocks were cut just .47 MMT to 158 MMT which reflects the higher usage but also an increase in Brazilian production of 2 MMT to 72 MMT and 1 MMT in South Africa for a crop of 14 MMT. Argentine production was left unchanged at 24 MMT. The trade was looking for a cut to 157.72 MMT.
The largest number of adjustments not surprisingly came in beans. Exports were increased 50 million bushels to a record 1.580 billion bushels and seed was increased 8 million bushels to reflect increased acreage. To counter balance this residual usage was cut 12 million bushels, taking it to zero and imports were raised 30 million to a record 65 million. The net result is that ending stock were sliced down to 135 million bushels, which is basically the same number we contended with for much of the year last year. The average trade estimate was 139 million.
Argentine bean production was left unchanged at 54 MMT and Brazil cut 1 MMT to 87.50, which takes the world ending stocks down 1.22 MMT to 69.42 MMT. The average trade estimate was 70.14 MMT. Keep in perspective that is still an increase of 11.55 MMT over last year.
Truly, there were no surprises in the domestic wheat numbers. Imports were cut 5 million bushels, feed usage sliced 30 million for a net increase in ending stocks of 25 million to 583 million, which is right on the average trade estimate.
World ending stocks were boosted 2.87 MMT to 186.68 MMT, which is a bit negative as the average estimate was 183.65.
I believe the report does fits in well with an expected high in corn and beans between now and the first week of May.