CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.73 1/2, High - $3.81 3/4, Low - $3.69 1/2, Close - $3.81 Up $.07 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “$3.76 seems to be the golden number that May ‘09 corn can’t seem to get through and close above. May is range bound between the 50% and 62% retracement level back to the early March ‘09 low. As I have said in some of my more recent posts I have a cycle low due near the 29th of April and I will hold a skeptical attitude toward corn until then and review then. I am still looking to buy corn at $3.67 1/2 if I can.”
May ‘09 corn: We managed to get our close above $3.76 today but I don't think there is much left in the tank for corn to keep rallying. I need to see tomorrow close above $3.76 as well to make sure today wasn't a fluke which I believe it was. There wasn't much volume today; if this bounce is based on planting fears then I believe you sell into this rally. I am still friendly longer-term but I believe we should make another run at $3.65-$3.67 before we move higher. I think a good day trade would have been selling the close today or anything above $3.82 tonight and have a buy stop at $3.88; this thought is an observation only, not a recommendation.
Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. As I said I will continue to try and buy May ‘09 corn around $3.67 1/2.
May ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.91 3/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.87
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.83 1/4
Today’s close: $3.81
(S1) Support 1: $3.78 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.75 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.74
MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $328.80, High - $340.00, Low - $324.40, Close - $324.90 Down $4.90
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “I am surprised May ‘09 meal did what it did today; we sold off as the day was progressing but it came back strong into the close. The overnight market set off an INTRA-DAY sell signal on the hourly chart (very short-term) at $328.20 with a protective buy stop at $330.50. The important number to keep in mind right now is $326.00 as the market settled above it today and if it does again tomorrow then I would say a test of the most recent high of $333.90 is likely.”
May ‘09 meal: I see the high on May '09 meal show's $340.00 but I didn't see it touch there during the day and if I look at a one minute chart it says it did it in the first minute of trade. The R3 number from yesterday was $341.00 so it is possible $340.00 was our high today, I just didn't see it. If $340.00 was our high and not a bad tick ($340 is the high on CME.com) then I am not friendly soybean meal at all. This would have been an awful close for the day. I expect selling on stop orders below today's low of $324.40.
Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tonight and a late low tomorrow.
May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $334.60
(R2) Resistance 2: $329.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $326.50
Today’s close: $324.90
(S1) Support 1: $324.10
(S2) Support 2: $321.50
(S3) Support 3: $318.10
HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $71.75, High - $72.15, Low - $71.25, Close - $71.875 Down $.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “I am still looking for that close below $72.175 which looks like it should come tomorrow and then I would be looking for a test of $70.525. My short-term target on June ‘09 hogs is $70.525 on gut feel but technically we need a couple of closes below $72.175. I still have my cycle indicator saying we should stay weak into May 4th so I will remain hedged for now with my upside open until $80.00 if we should get that high. Once we get closer to May 4th or reach some downside objectives ($69.525 in June ‘09) I may adjust my positions to become more of a bullish position meaning open the upside completely."
June ‘09 hogs: June '09 futures found support at my S2 number from yesterday of $71.35 but just couldn't muster enough momentum to reach my targeted area of $70.525. I still believe we will test $70.525 at some point in the next week or so and if we do I will be looking to adjust my position to allow for more upside potential if the market decides to move higher. For now I will remain hedged but the market is seeing buyers come into the market on these breaks. We need to get back above $72.175 tomorrow if we want to try and rule out a test of $70.525.
Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high but I’m staying hedged for now. There could be some buy stops around $72.15 for tomorrow's trade session.
June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-24-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.175
Today’s close: $71.875
(S1) Support 1: $71.70
(S2) Support 2: $71.25
(S3) Support 3: $70.525
Click here to view cash and cutout reports
Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.