Time to Buy Grains?

Published on: 07:58AM Oct 25, 2019

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Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at Export sales this morning came in at 491,500 metric tons, up 15% from the four-week average. Aside from weekly export reports, it is the season for a slow news cycle, which means you can probably count on tighter ranges.

Technicals: Yesterday’s trade did little to change the technical outlook. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 390-392 ¾, the bulls need to see a conviction close above here to encourage additional short covering from the funds. A failure to do so could take us back to our 4-star support pocket from 377-381, a MUST HOLD pocket.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 400-402 ½***, 412 ¾-417 ¼****

Pivot: 390-392 ¾

Support: 377-381 ½ ****, 363-366***


Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: November soybeans finished yesterday’s session near unchanged as we head into November option expiration today. Typically strike prices with high open interest tend to act as a magnet, with many of those being below the market we could see pressure into the weekend. Yesterday’s weekly export sales came in at 475,200 metric tons for 19/20, down 72% from the four-week average. Hopes of the phase 1 trade deal being signed in the middle of November is keeping some optimism around, but we are not putting much weight into that as of now.

Technicals: The market has been trying to trade higher but has struggled mightily over the last two weeks from 940-945, as you can see from the tails on the chart. Though we remain optimistic over the intermediate term, these tails are not considered bullish. If the bulls continue to fail against resistance, we could see prices retreat towards 915 ¼-920. We would consider adding long exposure back on at these prices.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 948-950****, 963 ¼-969 ¼***

Pivot: 936 ½-938 ¾

Support: 915 ¼-920***, 899-906 ¾ ****


Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat finished yesterday’s session lower following a lackluster export sales report. Export sales came in at 262,400 metric tons for 19/20, down 31% from the four-week average. With prices nearly 70 cents off of their September low, we could see that put a damper on near term demand.

Technicals: 515 ¼ has been our first support pocket since last week, we tested and held in the previous two sessions. Yesterday’s inability to hold strength is a caution flag for the bulls, a retest to support could be enough to break it down further. If the bulls cannot defend technical support into the weekend, we could see a retest of our 4-star support pocket, 500-503. This pocket is psychologically significant, but also represents the 100 and 200 day moving average, as well as other previously important price points.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 525 ¾-531 ½**, 538 ¼-543***, 561-565 ¾****

Support:515 ¼**, 500-506 ¼****


Kansas City Wheat (December)

Technicals: Kansas City wheat is testing our first support pocket; we have defined that as 415 ½-420. The inability to sustain yesterday’s momentum after holding support is concerning for the bulls, if they cannot defend this pocket into the weekend, we could see another leg lower. The next support pocket doesn’t come in until closer to $4.00, psychologically and technically significant.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 437-439 ½***, 454-457 ¾****

Support: 415 ½-420**, 397-400***, 380*


Cotton (December)

Technicals: Cotton futures are continuing to consolidate against our resistance pocket, we have defined that as 65.00-65.85. If the bulls cannot achieve a conviction close above here to wrap up the week, we could see the market pull back to technical support. Our first support level comes in at 62.50, a spot that we feel would be a good buying opportunity on the first test.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 65.00-65.85****, 68.35-68.60***


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Support: 61.72-62.50****, 59.58-60.79***, 56.59-57.55****