Tour Confirms Lower Yields

Published on: 06:01AM Aug 22, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 22, 2019.

Grain markets found support overnight on crop tours and survey's which are confirming yields below last year and multi-year averages. The true extent of the damage will not be known for several weeks until the crop goes through its finish stage. With many areas behind in maturity, an early cold snap could be devastating.

Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see 250,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes of corn, 150,000 to 800,000 tonnes of soybeans, 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes of wheat, 100,000 to 350,000 soymeal, and 5,000 to 25,000 tonnes of soyoil.

Allendale’s Annual Acreage Survey has started, and we could use your help again this year to make it as successful (and accurate) as possible. Please click here to complete your survey today or please call us at 800-262-7538 to participate.  The results will be emailed to all participants at the end of the survey.

Pro Farmer estimates Illinois corn yields at 171.17 bushels per acre, a sizable drop from the 192.63 bpa last year. They found parts of Iowa with higher corn yields, while soybeans yields were seen lower. Illinois soybean yields were lower as well.

Ethanol production slipped from 1.045 million barrels to 1.023 in the latest week. This was 4.7% under last year. That marks five weeks in a row of weak numbers. USDA’s corn for ethanol goal is 3.2% under last year. However, these plants are about 3% more efficient. To meet USDA’s goal we need ethanol production about even with last year. Instead, it is 1.1% under last year.

The agriculture and biofuel industries and their U.S. congressional allies ramped up pressure on the Trump administration on Wednesday over the relief he has given oil refiners from rules requiring use of biofuels. (Reuters)

Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will be out this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Outside market traders will be watching the numbers with interest as recession fears have hit markets. EIA Natural Gas Inventories will be out at 9:30 AM CDT.

Confirmed cash cattle trades in Kansas at $105 (last week $105), Nebraska at $107 and $175 (last week's $106-$107/$171) and in Iowa at $175 (last week $171-$172).

Cattle on Feed will be released this Friday at 2:00 PM CDT. Analysts are expecting to see On Feed as of August 1st at 100.8% of last year, Placements at 100.1%, and Marketings at 106.4%

Thursday's Cold Storage report is expected to show 633.631 million lbs. of pork at the end of July. That would be 11 million more then the previous month. Our beef estimate is 397.410 million lbs. at the end of July. That would be 18% under last year at the same time. It would be a 3 million lb. increase in stocks over the end of June count.

On the hog slaughter side, it looks like this week's run will push to 2.513 million head. That would be over last week's 2.497 and the largest since March 30. Supply is now on the seasonal uptrend that won't stop until November/December.

The weekly Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weight report showed the average liveweight of market hogs at 277.2 lbs. That is up from 276.8 the week prior, however, it is normal for weights to rise at this time of year.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 2.57 and select down .25. The CME feeder index is 137.24.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.07.