Traders Look to Latest Yield Data

Published on: 07:35AM Nov 08, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 8, 2019.

Grain market traders have their eyes set on today's USDA report set for release at 11:00 AM CDT. After the report is digested, attention will likely return to trade headlines and weather forecasts to gauge harvest potential.

Estimates for today's Supply and Demand report show an average estimate for corn harvest at 81.3 million acres (81.8 million on last report), average corn yield at 167.2 bu./acre (168.4 bu./acre last report) with corn production at 13.604 (13.779 last report).  Soybean harvest analyst average was 75.5 million acres (75.6 million acres last report), average soybean yield at 46.6 bu./acre (46.9 bu./acre last report) with soybean production at 3,513 (3,550 last report).

Corn export sales for the week totaled 487,944 metric tonnes, within the 300,000 – 650,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total only 468 million bushels. That is 47% under last year. Soybean export sales in this week totaled 1,807,368 metric tonnes, over the 600,000 – 1,200,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total 774 million bushels. That is 2% under last year. Wheat export sales in this week totaled 360,568 metric tonnes, within the 350,000 – 600,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total 549 million bushels, 9% over last year.

U.S. wheat is not quite ready for the bitter cold of winter, according to World Weather, Inc. "Planting is still incomplete in many areas and some of the crop that has been planted has not yet emerged. Waves of cold over the next ten days will force soil temperatures low enough to – at least temporarily – shut down crop development in many areas."

The USDA is preparing to release its second installment of trade aid to U.S. farmers who have suffered losses due to the ongoing trade war with China. According to Secretary Perdue, they hope to have the aid ready by late November or early December.

China imported 6.18 million tonnes of soybeans in October, a sizable drop from the 8.20 million tonnes imported in September according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China.

China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others' goods in a "phase one" trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday, sparking division among some advisers to President Donald Trump. (Reuters)

Cattle weights are rising, but this is a normal occurrence seasonally. It is also noted on a year/year basis. Steer weights rose 6 lbs. in the latest week on a carcass basis. Heifer weights rose 4 lbs. Compared with last year steer weights rose from +0.7% to now +1.2%. Heifer weights rose from +0.6% to now +0.8%.

Weekly export sales of beef totaled only 10,127 tonnes for 2019 delivery. A relatively low level of 2020 sales were noted at 2,245 tonnes. This week’s 2019 sales were 12% under last year. Year to date sales of 807,555 tonnes are 5.2% under last year. Pork sales totaled 16,642 tonnes for 2019 delivery. This week’s 2019 sales were 21% under last year. Year to date sales of 1,574,511 tonnes are 36% over last year.

China's Xinhua News Agency reports that the country is considering removing poultry import restrictions from the United States., state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday. U.S. poultry and eggs have been banned since January 2015 due to an avian influenza outbreak which has long-since been eliminated.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.15 and select up 1.49.  The CME feeder index is 146.09.  Pork cut-out values were down .30.