Traders Look to USDA as Week Ends

Published on: 03:22AM Dec 06, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for December 6, 2019.

Grain markets were mixed again this overnight as traders mull estimates for next Tuesday's USDA report as the week comes to a close. Trade headlines have been mostly supportive in recent sessions giving bulls hope a "phase one" deal could come soon.

Average estimates for next week's USDA Supply and Demand have been released by Reuters. The average guess for corn ending stocks is 1.919 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are seen at .476 BB, and wheat is seen at 1.010 BB.

Weekly export sales covered the period from Friday the 22nd – Thursday the 28th (impacted by the holiday). Corn export sales totaled 548,528 metric tonnes (546,115 for 2019/20). That was on the lower end of the 500,000 – 900,000 trade expectation. For this specific week in history it was the lowest in four years. Wheat export sales totaled 228,086 metric tonnes (all 2019/20). This was under the 300,000 – 700,000 trade range. USDA’s goal for the year is 950 million bushels. That would be 2% over last year. Year to date sales total 605 million bushels. That is 5% over last year.

Soybean export sales totaled only 683,783 metric tonnes (all 2019/20). This was under the 700,000 – 1,300,000 trade range.  Chinese buyers were not too active in the latest week. They procured another 298,617 tonnes. They now have 9.605 million tonnes booked. There is another 2.912 booked under the “unknown” moniker.

China said on Friday it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States, as the two sides try to thrash out an agreement to defuse their protracted trade war. The tariff waivers were based on applications by individual firms for U.S. soybeans and pork imports, the finance ministry said in a statement, citing a decision by the country's cabinet. It did not specify the quantities involved. (Reuters)

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reports Argentina's soybean crop is 49% planted, and corn is roughly the same at 48.7% planted. Soil moisture levels were reported mostly optimal to adequate after good rains in the last week.

The U.S. EPA Chief announced that the agency is working to address industry concerns over new biofuel blending rules. He expects a new plan with 2020 blending mandates to be delivered to the White House by the end of the week.

Argentine soy crushing giant Vicentin is struggling to repay over $350 million in debt and some plants are likely to halt production while it seeks relief amid an economic slowdown in the country, a source close to the firm said. (Reuters)

The Actual Slaughter report had steer carcass weights down 1 lb. in the latest week to 911 lbs. Heifer weights grew by 1 lb. in this week to 842. Year over year, steer weights fell from +1.3% year/year for week ended 11/16 to now +1.0% as of 11/23. Heifer weights grew from +0.6% to now +0.7%.

Weekly beef exports sales were quite low at only 528 metric tonnes. That was the second lowest sale of the year. Year to date sales come to 868,924 metric tonnes which is 2.0% under last year. Beef export sales are slightly disappointing but are not that much of a market mover.

Pork exports sales were strong at 30,624 metric tonnes. For a holiday week this is relatively strong at 53% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales come to 1,705,001 metric tonnes which is 38% over last year. Included in the pork number was a Chinese buy of 10,281 tonnes for 2019 delivery. This is the best single-week sale since the trade talks ended in October.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.35 and select down 2.19.  The CME feeder index is 144.53.  Pork cut-out values were up .36.

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