Traders Preparing for Monthly USDA Crop Update

Published on: 05:35AM Sep 09, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 9, 2019.

Grain Markets continue to slide on crop-friendly weather, lack of demand and large world supplies.  The overnight session saw some bargain buying support as traders try to remain optimistic on trade progress as we inch closer to the start of frost warnings.

Last week, September corn futures were down 18 cents, November soybeans down 11.5 cents, September wheat was unchanged, December soymeal was down $2.50 and December soyoil was down 18 points.

USDA weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CDT.  Trade is looking for corn condition rating at 58% GTE (58% GTE last week, 72% 5-year average).  Soybean condition rating at 55% GTE (55% GTE last week, 68% 5-year average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders showed funds new net position short -119,371 corn contracts, short -73,127 soybean contracts, short -21,037 wheat contracts, long +1,238 live cattle contracts and long +28,133 lean hog contracts.

USDA Weekly export sales showed net corn export sales at 250,844 tonnes (expecting 500,000 – 900,000 tonnes), soybean sales at 857,813 tonnes (expecting 50,000 – 700,000 tonnes), wheat sales at 312,066 tonnes (expecting 400,000 - 800,000 tonnes), soymeal at 227,100 tonnes (expecting 125,000 – 325,000 tonnes) and soyoil sales at 12,600 tonnes (expecting 0 – 28,000 tonnes).

September USDA Supply/Demand report will be released this Thursday at 11 a.m. CDT.  Trade is looking for corn production of 13.672 billion bu. (13.901 billion bu. last month) and soybean production at 3.577 billion bu. (3.680 billion bu. last month).  Old crop stocks calling for corn production to be 41 million bu. higher and soybean production to be 16 million bu. lower than last month.  USDA will also update 2019 prevent plant acres on the September report estimated at 19.8 million acres (300,000 thousand acres more than last report).

China's soybean imports in August jumped to 9.48 million tonnes (8.64 million tonnes last month) to hit the highest level in almost 1.5 years, customs data showed.  This was primarily due to earlier booked shipments which cleared customs after a delay.

U.S. agricultural trade groups told the Trump administration a proposed biofuel reform package falls short of expectations, four sources familiar with discussions said, complicating plans the administration had for presenting the proposal to President Trump.

China’s state planner said it will issue subsidies of up to 5 million yuan ($700,000) to support the construction of large-scale pig farms in the latest measure to promote pig farming in their country.  They can also be issued to farms seeking to expand, with the funds aimed at helping producers cover the cost of equipment for disease prevention, waste treatment, environmental controls and automated feeding.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 2.11 and select down 2.53. The CME feeder index is 138.36.  Pork cut-out values were up 1.36.