Traders Question Chinese Ag Purchases

Published on: 04:19AM Oct 15, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 15, 2019.

Grain markets are mixed on cautious US/Chinese trade optimism and wet weather maps over the next few weeks causing additional harvest delays throughout the Midwest.

Allendale’s corn and soybean harvest outlook webinar will start this afternoon!  With the latest numbers from the USDA now in the market, what should we expect from the US crop going forward, and how might the market respond?  Registration is free and you are not too late - you still have time to sign up here!

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said an additional round of tariffs on Chinese imports will likely be imposed if a trade deal with China has not been reached by then, but he expected the agreement to go through.  Mnuchin said more trade negotiations at various levels would take place over the coming weeks, including a phone call between himself, Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, and talks between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

USDA weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST.  Trade is looking for corn harvest rating at 23% complete (15% complete last week, 38% last year, 27% 5-year average).  Soybean harvest rating at 25% (5% last week, 38% last year, 36% 5-year average).

September NOPA Crush report will be released today at 11 a.m. CST.  Traders estimate crush at 162.2 million bushels (160.8 mb last year and soy oil stocks at 1.320 billion lbs. (1.401 billion lbs. last month and 1.531 billion lbs. last year).

Russia has harvested 116.2 million tonnes of grain from 92.8 percent of the area with an average yield of 2.68 tonnes per hectare, the Agriculture Ministry showed.  It had harvested 107.3 million tonnes with an average yield of 2.55 tonnes on the same date last year, the ministry said.

France wants a "firm and united" European response to tariffs imposed by the U.S. that notably target the French wine sector, the French farm ministry said.

Chinese firms have already purchased 700,000 tonnes of pork and 700,000 tonnes of sorghum from the United States this year to meet market demand. They also bought 320,000 tonnes of cotton, 230,000 tonnes of wheat and 20 million tonnes of soybeans from the U.S., Chinese spokesman Geng Shuang said at a daily press briefing. (Reuters)

December live cattle futures settled up $1.30 at 113.450 after reaching 113.725 (near the contract's 200-day moving average and its highest level since August 1st).  This was primarily due to cash cattle traded late last week about $2 per cwt higher than the previous week.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.56 and select up 0.65. The CME feeder index is 144.26.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.42.