Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 21, 2019.
Grain markets continue to show low trading volumes, with minimal fund activity as traders continue to focus on weather and the farmers’ ability to complete harvest efficiently. Soybeans drew support from strong weekly export sales along with concerns about yields as snowfall continued to hit parts of Minnesota and North Dakota over the weekend.
Last week, December corn futures were down 6.75 cents, November soybeans down 2 cents, December wheat up 24.25 cents, December soymeal was down $2.30 and December soyoil was up 39 points.
USDA weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST. Trade is looking for corn harvest rating at 33% complete (22% complete last week, 48% last year, 42% 5-year average). Soybean harvest rating at 38% (26% last week, 51% last year, 64% 5-year average).
CFTC Commitments of Traders showed funds new net position short -66,141 corn contracts, long +42,528 soybean contracts, short -10,564 wheat contracts, long +21,543 live cattle contracts and long +25,251 lean hog contracts.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China will work with the U.S. to address each other's core concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and that stopping the trade war would be good for both sides and the world. “The two sides have made substantial progress in many fields, laying an important foundation for the signing of a phased agreement”, he said.
Allendale’s Fall Corn and Soybean Outlook Update was last week. If you missed it, you missed a look at what might be coming our way in these markets. What should we expect for harvest this year, and what could that mean for pricing? What will be the next catalyst to move markets? The recording of the presentation is available here, now.
Brazil’s Matto Grosso showed soybeans at 42% planted (51% last year and 38% average). Throughout the Nation, Brazil’s soybean plantings is at 23% (near normal pace averages).
Weekly export sales showed corn export sales of 368,500 tonnes (expected 400,000 to 800,000 tonnes), soybeans at 1,601,000 tonnes (expected 900,000 to 1,600,000 tonnes), wheat at 395,100 tonnes (expected 250,000 to 550,000 tonnes), soymeal at 153,000 tonnes (expected 150,000 to 400,000 tonnes), and soyoil at 3,900 tonnes (expected 0 to 25,000 tonnes).
Egypt (the largest wheat buyer) has enough strategic reserves of the grain to cover its consumption needs until February 2020, the Supply ministry said. The state's grains buyer, GASC bought 405,000 tonnes of wheat at its last purchase tender on Oct. 16, 2019.
African swine fever has killed off roughly 20% of Vietnam's hog herd, and it is not clear whether the outbreak has been contained, USDA Undersecretary, Ted McKinney said. "African swine fever continues to clearly be a problem, not just for the countries that have it, but countries like our own that don't want to get it," he added.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down .07 and select up .44. The CME feeder index is 145.60. Pork cut-out values were up .75.