US Agricultural Futures Mostly Steady

Published on: 09:23AM Dec 03, 2019

USDA Crop Progress Report: Plenty of Corn Remains Unharvested 

  • The USDA’s crop progress report issued on Monday, Dec. 2 showed 89% of the corn harvested and 96% of the soybean crop harvested.
  • The 89% corn harvested is the fourth slowest harvest pace since 1981.
  • The slowest harvest pace was in 1992 where the USDA reported 75% of the corn is harvested.  
  • The progress pace in Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa are well behind the historical averages.  
  • The USDA reported 96% of the soybean crop is harvested. 
  • The 5 year average is 99% complete.  
  • Almost all major producing states are behind their historical averages.   
  • Next week’s Dec. 9 report should be the final Crop Progress report by the USDA for the 2019/20 crop year.    
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer:  We believe that Monday’s corp progress report articulates a vulnerable corn crop.  With an estimated 1.3 billion corn bushels left unharvested and snow accumulating across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the Dakotas we believe that harvest progress could be done.  At this point we look forward to the USDA’s December and January WASDE reports for guidance about total corn and soybean supplies.  With both corn and soybean supplies left unharvested, please contact your FBN farm market advisor (FMA) for information about local basis opportunities.                                

FBN Advisory

Ukraine Grain Exports +32% From 2018 

  • Ukraine increased its grain exports by 32% to 24.8 million tonnes (MMT) for the 2019/20 crop year which runs from July-June. 
  • Corn, wheat and barley exports have all been strong this year.  
  • At 36 MMT, the 2019/20 Ukraine corn corp is the largest on record.  The country also produced a record large 29 MMT wheat crop.  
  • The USDA is predicting record volumes of corn, wheat and barley exports.      
  • Ukraine has exported 7.5 MMT of corn and 3.5 MMT of barley.  
  • Wheat exports rose to 13.5 million tonnes from 9.4 MMT during 2018.  
  • Ukraine is the fourth largest exporter of corn in the world and the fifth largest exporter of wheat.    
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: We believe that the Ukraine’s bumper crops are a negative for the US corn and wheat export programs.  We believe that a strong US dollar and an abundance of global feed grains, have made the US corn and wheat export programs the residual supplier to the world.                  

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)
 

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