Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 20, 2019.
Grain market futures firmed as strong weekly export sales data and hopes for progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal more than offset pressure from a crop-friendly weather forecast. The warmer weather has accelerated lagging crop maturity and is lessening the risk that yields could be damaged by frost.
U.S. and Chinese deputy trade negotiators resumed face-to-face talks for the first time in almost two months yesterday, as both sides try to bridge deep policy differences and find a solution to end their ongoing trade war. "What we need is to correct the big imbalances, not just the current trade deficit. It's more complicated than just buying a few more soybeans," said U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross.
In an unexpected twist, some members of the Chinese delegation will stay in the United States to visit U.S. farming regions next week. (FoxBusiness)
Weekly export sales showed corn sales of 1,529,500 tonnes (expecting 900,000 to 1,300,000 tonnes), soybean sales of 1,728,100 tonnes (expecting 700,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes), wheat at 286,600 tonnes (expecting 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes), soymeal at 435,800 tonnes (expecting 50,000 to 450,000 tonnes), and soyoil at 20,600 (expecting 0 to 35,000 tonnes).
President Trump discussed biofuels policy with senators from U.S. oil states, including Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, who said the president was engaged on the issue that has pitted Big Oil and Big Corn against each other. "The president is ready to get a decision and move forward. We hope that could happen as of this afternoon," said Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue.
China auctioned 10,000 tonnes of pork from state reserves yesterday to secure meat supply during the National Day holiday, their commerce ministry said. China consumed about 54 million tonnes of pork in 2018 but volumes this year are uncertain because of the shortages.
Dry weather across majority of Ukraine has delayed the sowing of winter grain for next year's crop, said Ukrainian weather forecasters. "It has been a standard situation of recent years - most of the territory is in a state of soil drought," said Tetyana Adamenko, Ukrainian’s head of agriculture state weather forecasting center. Ukraine has had drought conditions seven of the last ten years, she said.
China's customs office said it had granted export licenses to eight additional Argentine meat-processing plants this week. China approved seven Argentina poultry plants for exports last week, according to the Embassy of Argentina in China.
A new outbreak of African swine fever has been found at a privately-held farm in a village in Russia's Primorsk region near the border with China, Russia's agriculture watchdog said on Friday. (Reuters)
Cattle on Feed will be out this afternoon at 2:00 PM CDT. The average guess for On Feed (as of September 1st) is 99.3% of last year. Placements are expected at 93.7%, and Marketings at 98.3%.
Cold Storage is expected to show a 624 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August. The five-year average is 593 million lbs. Beef stocks, at 471 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 454. This report will be released Monday at 2:00 PM CDT.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 0.07 and select up 0.19. The CME feeder index is 137.29. Pork cut-out values were up 0.91.