U.S.-China Trade Tensions Escalate

Published on: 03:56AM Jun 01, 2020

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 1, 2020.

Grain Markets were mixed with corn and soybean futures lower as trade tensions escalated between U.S. and China and weather forecasts remained favorable for planting.  Wheat futures were higher on warmer, dry weather in the U.S. Plains and lower harvest estimates in Europe due to a dry Spring.

Last week, July corn futures were up 7.50 cents, July soybeans were up 7.50 cents, July wheat up 12.75 cents, July soymeal was down $0.90 and July soyoil was up 75 points.

President Trump said on Friday he was ordering his administration to begin the process of eliminating special treatment for Hong Kong to punish China for its plans to impose new security legislation there, a potential bombshell for the territory's status as a global financial center.  China’s Global Times newspaper said President Trump's move towards erasing Hong Kong's privileges is a "recklessly arbitrary" step.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CST.  Trade is expecting corn planting around 95% complete (88% last week, 64% last year, 89% average).  Soybean planting expected at 77% complete (65% last week, 36% last year, 69% average).  Hard red Spring wheat planting expected at 88% complete (81% last week, 93% last year, 97% average).  

Weekly export sales showed corn sales at 473,600 tonnes (expecting 550,000 to 1,300,000 tonnes), soybeans at 847,200 tonnes (expecting 600,000 to 1,400,000 tonnes), wheat at 706,200 tonnes (expecting 150,000 to 600,000 tonnes), soymeal at 172,000 tonnes (expecting 100,000 to 400,000 tonnes) and soyoil at 56,600 tonnes (expecting 0 to 50,000 tonnes).

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China.  Of the total, 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during this marketing year and 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during next marketing year.  There was also export sales of 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during this marketing year.

USDA Soybean Crush report will be released this morning at 11 CDT.  Trade is looking for April soy crush at 182.5 million bushels (171.6 mb last year, 192.1 mb last month).  Oil stocks expected to advance 204 million lbs. to 2.736 billion lbs. (2.532 billion lbs. last month – 2 year high).

Weekly pork exports were positive with sales of 20,579 tonnes, but still 62% under last year. Year to date sales of 1,117,314 tonnes are 40.6% over last year.  Beef export sales rebounded this week at 11,483 tonnes (the best in six weeks, but still 47% under last year).  Year to date sales of 451,614 tonnes are 6.6% under last year.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 6.22 and select down 4.02.  The Feeder cattle index is 129.36.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.26.

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