Walsh Commercial Hedging 4/16/12
Apr 16, 2012
Good afternoon. The grain and soy markets ended the day all in the red after much needed weekend rains across the Corn Belt and eastern Plains helped improve soil moistures. Everybody knows the saying “rain makes grain.” The 6-10 day outlook in the Midwest mostly calls for below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures so there could be a record or near record plantings pace by the end of the month. The USDA will delay issuing its crop progress report until Tuesday due to a server outage after a small electrical fire today. The trade is looking for 18%-24% of U.S corn to be planted vs. 7% last week and 6% average. Initial soybean plantings are expected to come in around 2%-5%.
May wheat finished the day down 7 ¼ at 616 ¼. Forecasts for more rain in Western Europe also weighed on wheat. May corn was down 6 at 623 ¼ and new crop December corn was down 10 ½ at 526 ½ because of the favorable weather. However, there is talk of a possible frost around the 22nd/23rd of April, but the risk appears confined to areas north of I-80 on today’s maps. This is something producers and the trade will keep an eye on. May beans finished down 16 ¾ at 1420 and new crop November beans finished down 11 ¾ at 1350. NOPA crush data was somewhat disappointing for the bean market as it showed soybean crush in March at 14.253 million bushels, about 1 million bushels lower than expected. With open interest at a record high and an overbought reading on technical indicators, traders remain concerned with a possible correction over the near term. However, a very tight outlook for the 2012/13 balance sheets, continued strong demand from China, and the uncertainties of the South American bean might have traders buying breaks in beans.
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