Weekend Grain Market Update (2.9.20)

Published on: 14:01PM Feb 09, 2020

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Broad Market Outlook: Outside markets rallied hard last week, dismissing the concerns over coronavirus. We were looking for the market to stabilize, but the rally to new all-time highs was even surprising for us. It puts our train of thought on the other side now, that the market is not taking it serious enough, leaving the risk to the downside. If this is true, it could be a wet blanket for many commodities.

Corn (March)

Corn futures managed to rally on Friday, putting prices in positive territory for the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 26,655 contracts through February 4th, extending their net short position to 52,045.

Corn technicals are little changed from last week, Tuesday’s WASDE report could be the inflection point. A break and close below 375-377 ¾ would mark lower lows, opening the door for a drop towards contract lows at 365 ¾. The bears have the advantage until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above 387-388 ¼. Estimates for US ending stocks come in from 1.788-1.942 billion bushels, 1.864 being the average, down from 1.892 in January.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 392-394 ¼***, 407 ¾-411 ¾****

Pivot: 384 ¾-387 ¼

Support: 375-377 ¾***, 365-365 ¾****

Call/Text/Email Oliver with questions or comments!

312-837-3938

[email protected]

 

 

Soybeans (March)

Soybeans tried to rally multiple times last week but failed to hold bigger gains through the close, creating bearish tails on the chart, potentially setting up a bear flag. Resistance remains intact from 888 ¼-890 ½, this pocket represents the breakdown point from January 30th and a key Fibonacci retracement. The bears have the advantage until we see consecutive closes above this pocket.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 31,550 contracts through February 4th, extending their net short position to 86,996. The USDA’s WASDE report will be out on Tuesday, estimates for US ending stocks come in from .320-.520 billion bushels, the average being .443, down from .475 in January

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 888 ¼-890 ½**, 899-902 ½***, 920-924***

Pivot: 875-880****

Support: 865-867 ¾**, 841 ½****

 

Call/Text/Email Oliver with questions or comments!

312-837-3938

[email protected]

 

Chicago Wheat (March)

The market was able to defend technical resistance on Friday, we defined that as 563 ¾-566. This pocket contains what would be the right shoulder of a bearish head and shoulders formation. The market has been finding support between the 50-day moving average and trendline support (from the contract lows), that comes in from 548-551. A break and close below could spark long liquidation from funds and accelerate the selling pressure.

Bias: Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 563 ¾-566****, 575 ½-578 ¾***, 598-601 ¾***

Support: 548-551***, 538 ½**, 520-525****

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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