What to Expect From Today's USDA Report

Published on: 07:37AM Jul 10, 2020
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Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures are little changed in the early morning trade as market participants gear up for today’s WASDE report, out at 11am CT. Ending stocks are expected to come in near 2.683 billion bushels. Yield estimates are rarely changed in this report, only 4 out of the last 20 years. Once we get past this report, attention will turn back to weather; we would expect to see a gap (up or down) Sunday night, so be sure to manage your risk ahead of the weekend. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 599,200 metric tons for 2019/2020, 66% higher than last week and 30% above the 4-week average.

Technicals: In yesterday’s report we talked about reducing long exposure against our technical resistance pocket 360-363 ½. The market has now retreated to the middle of the recently established range. A breakout above resistance could spark another wave of short covering. A break and close below technical support would neutralize the recent bullish chart developments.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 360-363 ½**, 370-374****

Support: 346-349 ½****, 338 ¼-339***

 

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures are little changed in the early morning trade as market participants gear up for today’s WASDE report, out at 11am CT. Ending stocks are expected to come in near 414 million bushels. Yield estimates are rarely changed in this report, only 3 out of the last 20 years. Once we get past this report, attention will turn back to weather; we would expect to see a gap (up or down) Sunday night, so be sure to manage your risk ahead of the weekend. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 952,200 metric tons, 60% higher than the 4-week average.

Technicals: The market seems to be holding ground near our pivot pocket, 900-904 ¼, a positive sign for the Bull camp. Resistance remains intact at 913 ½. A breakout above this level could encourage a move towards 923-927 ¼, a key retracement along with previously important price points. Significant support remains intact, 877 ½-882 ¼.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 913 ½**, 923-927 ¼****

Pivot: 900-904 ¼

Support: 877 ½-882 ¼****

 

Chicago Wheat (September)

Technicals: The Bull camp found the follow through they were looking for, taking prices to the target we have been talking about for the last three days, 525-530. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, “If you have been long on the breakout, this is the area to reduce. If you want to be short, this is an area to consider selling against.”.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 525-530***, 546 ¼**

Pivot: 517 ½

Support: 497-502 ¼****, 481-485 ½***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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