Will Crop Surveys Change the Narrative?

Published on: 06:29AM Aug 21, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for August 21, 2019.

Grain markets are mixed overnight as weather, crop tours, and trade remain the focus. Tour findings are adding support, but traders are cautious as higher trade overnight does not necessarily translate to day session gains.

Day two of Pro Farmer's crop tour had stops in Indiana, Nebraska, and Illinois yesterday. In Indiana, corn yields were pegged at 161.46 bushels per acre, down from last years 182.33 bpa. Nebraska corn yields are estimated at 172.55 bpa, down from 179.17 last year.

Allendale’s Annual Acreage Survey has started, and we could use your help again this year to make it as successful (and accurate) as possible. Please click here to complete your survey today or please call us at 800-262-7538 to participate.  The results will be emailed to all participants at the end of the survey.

Ukraine's grain traders union, UZA, estimates the countries 2019 wheat harvest will rise to 27.72 million tonnes from 24.83 million tonnes last year. They expect exports could reach 21 million tonnes this year compared with 15.53 million tonnes last year.

POET announced yesterday it will idle production at its bioprocessing facility in Cloverdale, IN due to recent decisions by the Administration regarding SREs. The plant will cease processing of over 30 million bushels of corn annually and hundreds of local jobs will be impacted.

President Donald Trump's administration has been scrambling to stem the tide of rising anger in Farm Belt states after its decision this month to allow numerous oil refiners to mix less ethanol into their gasoline, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. (Reuters) Renewable fuel credits were higher on the news.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a private group of business executives and free trade economists that he believes the trade war with China could come to an end by the 2020 presidential election, according to people who attended the gathering. (CNBC)

Cattle on Feed will be released this Friday at 2:00 PM CDT. Analysts are expecting to see On Feed as of August 1st at 100.8% of last year, Placements at 100.1%, and Marketings at 106.4%

Thursday's Cold Storage report is expected to show 633.631 million lbs. of pork at the end of July. That would be 11 million more then the previous month. Our beef estimate is 397.410 million lbs. at the end of July. That would be 18% under last year at the same time. It would be a 3 million lb. increase in stocks over the end of June count.

The worst of profitability issues is hitting the cattle market now. This month and next will see implied losses of around $300 per head according to KSU's estimates. Their models imply losses through Q1.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 2.57 and select down .25. The CME feeder index is 137.24.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.07.