The Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2026

Cattle Plunge on Human NWS Case Topping the Market? Corn Up on Pro Farmer Yield Cut

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 15:09:55 GMT

Cattle futures were sharply lower Monday, hogs highs and grains mixed after a higher start.

First Human Case of NWS in U.S.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.

It was found in a resident of Maryland, who had traveled from El Salvador and that person has received treatment for the infection.

USDA has rolled out a five-part strategy to eradicate screwworms, including building a sterile fly production facility and releasing lab-bred male flies that can’t reproduce into outbreak zones. It’s the first human case in decades on U. S. soil.

Kooima says the market actually handled the news better than he thought it would and he was expecting a lower opening in cattle anyway with the bearish placements figure in the Cattle on Feed Report.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report Bearish

USDA’s August Cattle on Feed Report was slightly bearish as placements came in at 94% of a year ago but the average trade guess was 91%.

He says this is an indication that cattle producers are backing up cattle.

The state-by-state breakouts showed Texas at only 75%, while Iowa was at 118% which also shows the continued influence of the Southern border being closed to Mexican cattle imports.

However, the on feed numbers were at 98% of a year ago, which was as expected and confirms the continued trend of tight supplies.

Cash Convergence

Kooima says cash trade was sloppy in the North last week but higher in the South at mostly $240 live, which was up $5 from the previous week.

He says the cash is starting to converge with futures and the South is starting to converge with the North.

Is the High In the Cattle Market?

The bearish technical action off new contract and record highs on Friday may be signaling a top according to Kooima.

He admits there have been several key reversals the cattle market has negated but he thinks this one might stick.

The reason is because the market is overbought, but also the seasonals are usually weaker for the cattle market in September as the market moves past the Labor Day beef demand peak.

Hog Futures Try to Narrow Discount

Lean hog futures were higher early Monday on spread unwinding with cattle but also extending gains after higher weekly closes.

The October contract is holding a sizable discount to the cash and that may be somewhat attractive to fund traders.

However, Kooima says the cash trade is weakening and it is more likely the futures will fall towards the futures to make up that gap.

Corn Extends Gains

Corn futures were high on Monday extending gains after a higher weekly close and with the tailwind of Pro Farmer cutting yield estimates by 6 bu. below USDA at 182.7 bu. per acre.

Kooima says that confirmation is enough to keep the market in recovery mode, especially with strong exports.

Soybeans See Profit Taking

Soybeans were higher on the opening but ran into chart resistance and saw some profit taking.

The market has rallied nearly 75 cents off the lows and needs additional bullish news to get through these chart areas.

Kooima says exports have been decent despite China being absent from the market, but it might take China purchases to keep the rally going.

Will Pro Farmer's Lower Corn and Soybean Yield Estimates Further Boost Prices?

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 22:13:02 GMT

Soybeans ended higher with corn mixed on Friday ahead of the release of the Pro Farmer final yield and production estimates.

Pro Farmer Corn Estimates Below USDA

Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre led the Eastern leg of this year’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour.

He says Pro Farmer estimated U.S. corn production at 16.204 billion bu. based on an average yield of 182.7 bu. per acre, which was down nearly 6 bu. from USDA’s estimate on Aug. 12.

Their corn estimate deviation was +-1% which ranges from 16.366 billion bu. to 16.042 billion bu. or 184.5 bu. to 180.9 bu. per acre.

Illinois and Iowa Corn Yield Down Substantially

Yield results from the top two corn producing states pulled down the national average yield.

Pro Farmer projected Illinois corn yield on the tour 23 bu. per acre lower than USDA’s August estimate and Iowa yield was 24 bu. lower at 198.43 bu.

Akre says while there was great yield potential, disease plagued crops in both states including heavy Southern Rust and Gray Leaf Spot pressure.

Will USDA Have to Lower the National Corn Yield?

Akre thinks the agency will have to adjust their national corn yield in September based on the findings of the tour, so 188.8 may be the highest yield the market will see in the 2025 growing season.

He says USDA used farmer surveys and satellite imagery to come up with their August yield projections and it was just a snapshot in time.

Since USDA released their August numbers the crop has seen the onset of heavy disease pressure in key corn producing areas which will drag down the national average.

Will This Further Boost Corn Prices?

Akre says December corn had positive price action following the August WASDE and built on that this week with the tailwind of lower corn yields out of Iowa and Illinois.

With Pro Farmer’s 6 bushel cut to the national corn yield the corn market will likely be able to continue to move higher.

Akre says, “I think the funds will take this as a sign to further cover their short positions.”

Pro Farmer Soybean Estimates Below USDA

For soybeans Pro Farmer projects U.S. production at 4.246 billion bu. with an average yield of 53.0 bu. per acre, which was down just .6 bu. from USDA’s August estimate.

Their average deviation on soybeans was +- 2% which equals 4.330 billion bu. to 4.161 billion bu. for production and 54.1 bu. to 51.9 bu. per acre on yield.

Big Pod Counts, Big Disease in the West

Pod counts were strong, especially in the East, but Akre says the key will be if the crop has enough moisture to realize that yield potential.

In the West pod counts were also solid but that crop is plagued by disease, including white mold and SDS, which could trim yield.

“As our Crop Tour route went further west, disease pressure in soybeans became much more obvious,” said . “We saw a lot of sudden death the further west we went. That is not to say we saw a bad crop. Beans will need some moisture to utilize some of the potential evident in the significant number of pods.”

Can Soybean Prices Continue Higher?

The soybean market was higher for the week with November posting 16 cent gains.

Akre says soybean prices have been moving higher since the bullish August WASDE and broke above key resistance on the charts this week with the help of lower than expected crop tour estimates.

He says after closing above those levels the soybean market should be able to continue higher with the push from Pro Farmer’s slightly lower national production estimate.

Plus, EPA released a somewhat positive decision on the pending 175 plus Smaller Refinery Exemptions (SREs) on Friday which helped to boost the bean oil market for a second day which supported soybeans.

How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 20:32:51 GMT

As more than 100 crop scouts traversed dirt roads and two-lane highways, stopping dozens of times to sample corn and soybeans in seven Midwest states, they gathered insights to answer the question on many farmers’ minds this week: How would the Pro Farmer estimates compare to the numbers USDA-NASS released August 12?

The answer: Pro Farmer found a big corn crop but one that’s currently positioned to average 182.7 bu. per acre – 6.1 bu. below USDA’s 188.8 bu. projection.

“When we put the yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1% for corn and a plus or minus 2% for soybeans, and that’s because we know things can change yet,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds.

With that perspective in play, here’s how the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates compare:

Pro Farmer Corn Estimate (+-1%): 16.042 to 16.366 billion bushels; 180.9 to 184.5 bu. per acre average
USDA Corn Estimate: 16.7 billion bushels; 188.8 bu. per acre average

(ProFarmer)

Disease Pressure Across The Midwest Is Concerning
The 2025 growing season has been marred by heavy disease pressure in many of the corn and soybean crops Pro Farmer scouts evaluated this week.

It was an issue Lane Akre says showed up repeatedly in corn and soybean fields from the get-go, as tour scouts fanned out to check 2,000-plus fields across seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

“We know disease can speed up the maturation of plants, making it difficult to keep them healthy long enough for optimal grain fill before harvest,” says Akre, Pro Farmer Economist and lead scout on the eastern leg of the tour. “We are concerned diseases like southern rust and tar spot could negatively impact corn yields in some of these states during the next few weeks.”

Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
USDA’s August estimate for the national soybean yield average is just slightly above what Pro Farmer scouts found in fields this week. Pro Farmer places the soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels

By comparison, USDA expects soybeans to average a record high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.

Pro Farmer Soybean Estimate (+-2%): 4.161 to 4.330 billion bushels; 51.9 to 54.1 bu. per acre

“One of the questions heading into the tour was whether the soybean crop could live up to the lofty expectations a lot of people have for it, and we found that it does,” Akre says. “There’s a massive crop out there in fields. We’re just hoping it can hold on until harvest – and outpace the disease pressure out there – to deliver on those big yields.”

Corn and Soybean Yield Summaries
Pro Farmer and AgWeb reported extensively throughout the tour — the highs and lows of each crop in each of the seven states. Here are summaries from each state. Click on the links to learn more details.

Illinois: Scouts reported an Illinois corn crop that looked lush from the road, but once they picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average to above-average crop – not the record yield estimate USDA reported on August 12.

“The Illinois corn crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”

Indiana: Wet conditions from rain, fog and heavy due is causing some unevenness in Indiana corn and soybeans. Still, the state’s corn crop posted a yield number that came in 3.35% higher than its 2024 number.

From disease pressure to too much rain, some scouts found a solid soybean crop in Indiana, while other routes exposed extreme variability. Overall pod count numbers were down 2.30% from 2024.

Iowa: Scouts spent two days in the state gathering dozens of samples to gain insights and project yield estimates. Despite challenges from disease pressure, scouts reported a big corn crop with significant potential. Their estimates put the Iowa crop up 2.93% over 2024, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” reports Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

For soybeans, scouts found a massive crop, up 5.49% in the number of pods as compared to the 2024 crop.

Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota is currently heading for a record yield this season, if it can outpace disease pressure. Scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the corn there that have ever been measured in the tour’s history.

“That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” Carolan says.

Soybeans also show tremendous yield potential in Minnesota. Pod counts were up 20.38% this week versus 2024 counts, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average.

Nebraska: Adequate moisture is pulling up corn yields in the state this season, with some tour routes reporting 8% to 10% increases compared to 2024 and 2023. The much-improved corn yield estimates were a welcomed change, scouts say, after seeing corn there struggle in two back-to-back years of drought.

Soybeans also are promising big yield results, with pod counts up 15.0% this week over the 2024 estimate.

Ohio: Heavy rains last spring meant many farmers either got a late start to the growing season or they had to replant fields. The moisture extremes early on have resulted in considerable variability in fields from one end of the state to the other. Still, scouts say the Ohio crop has solid corn yield potential overall, citing possible records along some Pro Farmer Crop Tour routes.

The soybean pod factory in Ohio is going strong – with numbers up 4.66% this season over 2024 – but scouts caution a lack of late-season moisture is concerning. More rain is needed for the soybean crop there to finish well.

South Dakota: Based on USDA’s August crop estimates, scouts knew the possibility was there to uncover a big crop in South Dakota. Field estimates show record yield potential is possible , especially due to ample moisture this year that’s supported growth and development.

Soybeans might be an even better story in South Dakota this year. Pod counts came in at 15.9% above last year’s tour and well above the three-year average of 970.1 pods.

For more insights from the 2025 Pro Farmer Crop Tour:

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 4 Results from Iowa and Minnesota

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Crops vs. Foliar Diseases: A High-Stakes Race Underway in Midwest Fields

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 21:55:22 GMT

Two words sum up the concerns Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts expressed about the corn and soybean crops they evaluated on Thursday in Minnesota and northeast Iowa: disease pressure.

Corn crops infected by southern rust and tar spot were a common sight in fields across both states during the fourth and final day of the tour.

“We saw disease in all of the fields we sampled today, though one of them really wasn’t too bad,” says Lane Akre, host of the eastern leg of the tour. “We saw a lot of early stages of tar spot, and we saw a lot of southern rust throughout.”

So it was no small surprise to the crowd attending Thursday night’s live broadcast when the final tally showed Pro Farmer’s corn estimate for Minnesota actually surpasses USDA’s 202-bu.-per-acre yield projection made August 12.

Pro Farmer estimates the Minnesota corn crop will average 202.86 bushels; that’s up 23.02% versus 2024 and up 13.41% versus the three-year average, according to Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

“This crop is huge; it absolutely is,” Carolan says. “Minnesota is the only state on tour where we have recorded over a 200-bu. average this year. It is a record-year yield for the state.”

She adds that scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the crop that have ever been measured on the tour. “That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” she says.

Minnesota soybeans show similar yield promise, with final numbers pegged at 1247.86 pods in a 3' x 3' area. That’s up 20.38% versus last year, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average, Carolan reports.

(ProFarmer)

A Much Better Growing Season, So Far
The findings in Minnesota were a pleasant change from what scouts found in 2024, when weather seemed to jog between two extremes – drought and flooding – for much of the season.

Jaden Serbus, Pro Farmer tour scout and farmer based near Renville, Minn., says he was relieved to see Mother Nature had course corrected.

“Last year, the corn crop was only as high as my head, all yellow and stunted with very, very poor yields with all the rain,” Serbus recalls. “This year, many areas are like a garden spot.”

Minnesota District 8 & 9 (10 stops)
Nicolett, Le Sueur, Waseca, Steele, Dodge, Olmsted counties
🌱 Avg Pods in a 3X3 - 1262.80
🌽Avg Yield- 208.35#pftour25 @Feckersbrad73 pic.twitter.com/IklmOxDOTA
— McKenzie Feckers (@MFeckers) August 21, 2025

Northeast Iowa Crops Look Good, But…
As Akre and his team of scouts moved into northeast Iowa on Thursday morning, early yield estimates had Akre concerned results there could bring the state’s overall averages down.

“We saw a lot of drowned-out parts of fields, and that’s limited some of the ear size and counts as populations are down due to skips,” he says.

Despite some agronomic challenges, scouts recorded strong numbers that put the Iowa corn crop at 198.43 bu.-per-acre yield average for 2025. That’s up 2.93% versus last year, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” Carolan reports.

Iowa soybeans are also looking to break yield records. The 2025 crop delivered a 1384.38 pod estimate average in a 3' x 3' area on Thursday; that’s up 5.49% versus last year and up 12.94% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Linn Co. Iowa. Lots of tar spot and rust. 46 avg ear count, pretty light, but made some big ears. Yield est 208.53 but still a long way to go grain fill wise#pftour25 pic.twitter.com/efDDM6sbBG
— Lane (@iwatchcorn) August 21, 2025

“For the most part, the Iowa beans are pretty lush and the pod counts have been there, the soil moisture is up, so the potential is pretty high on beans...I think that’s been the real story the last couple of days — how many pods are out there,” Akre says.

But foliar diseases rearing up in Iowa fields have the potential to put the kibosh on record yields between now and harvest, reports Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

That concern is one reason he reminded crop tour listeners on Thursday that Pro Farmer’s current yield estimates could change before combines roll.

“When we put the corn yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1%. The soybean crop estimate comes with a plus or minus 2%, and that’s because things can change. We all know that,” Flory says.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds, noting that he wonders whether the soil moisture currently available will offset some of the discount scouts put on the crops because of the disease pressure that’s present.

At the end of the day, August 21, no one knows how the final corn and soybean yields will net out. As Flory notes, while there’s optimism about better yields coming in this harvest versus a year ago, the outcomes depend on how well the crops cross the finish line.

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Watch Day 4 Recap: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results from Iowa and Minnesota

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 22:23:35 GMT

Crops vs. Foliar Diseases: A High-Stakes Race Underway in Midwest Fields - Read Story

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Western Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

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About the Pro Farmer Crop Tour

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is taking place Aug. 18-21, 2025. Simultaneously, the tour follows an eastern and western route, with the two culminating in Rochester, Minn. Nightly meetings in each location review daily results, scouting observations and historical comparison data. Attend nightly meetings in person or watch the nightly broadcast online at AgWeb.com/croptour .